There is a lurking fear amongst people on whether they would ever be able to live in a Covid-free environment. In this context, there is a need to examine some important facts regarding the Covid-19 pandemic.

The spread of coronavirus has been so intense and fast that globally more than 200 million people have been infected and around four million have lost their lives in a span of one-and-a-half years. These are the official figures. Even the WHO admits that there has been gross under-reporting of cases for various reasons.

Further, several mutations called Variants of Concern (VOC) of SARS-COV-2 have been discovered in the past several months across the world — they have been called Alpha, Beta, Gamma and, now, the highly dangerous and speedily transmissible Delta+ strain.

VOC reduce protection from vaccines and decrease the neutralising power of antibodies in humans. The WHO recently said that the mushrooming of the Delta variant is now being observed in about 130 countries.

China’s National Health Commission reported 143 cases of Delta variant on August 9 from 17 provinces, and since then metal bars have been hammered on doors to keep the residents locked-in. The US National Health Institute, just a day before, warned that from the present average of 129,000, the number of infected cases may cross 200,000 in a couple of weeks.

Cases could climb

Talking of India, according to INSACOG (Indian Sars-C0v-2 Genomic Consortium) dashboard, 58.4 per cent infections were of VOC and 37.2 per cent of Delta. The WHO says that the number of cases and deaths are now climbing, after a period of decline, spurred by the Delta variant.

The Delta variant has now been stoking fears of new waves of coronavirus infection across the world. So, some countries have even started thinking of giving a third booster dose. Recently, the UK’s Oxford vaccine expert group said the Delta variant has rendered the prospect of herd immunity difficult and it will infect people who have been vaccinated.

Further, the US FDA authorised on August 11 a third dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines for people with weakened immune system as the country struggles to thwart the Delta variant. Israel, Bahrain and China, among many other countries, are also considering a third booster dose Such moves shake the confidence of the masses in the efficacy of the existing vaccines.

Many nations, especially the developing and the least developed, are unable to accelerate the pace of vaccination because of lack of access to vaccine coupled with ‘vaccine hesitancy’ due to fears of adverse impact, etc.

This poses a big challenge to achieving ‘herd immunity’. Since the pandemic started, the WHO has been asserting that no one is protected unless all are protected. In India, the fourth Serological Surveillance Survey report, brought out on July 21, reveals that 62 per cent on an average have anti-bodies to fight the virus but this is far below the threshold of 85-90 per cent.

To achieve this, the report says that speedy vaccination on a large scale among the un-vaccinated (including children below 18 years) and those given only one shot is required. This is a tall order considering the domestic production of vaccines and possible imports.

It must be noted that the Sars-Cov-2 herd immunity level was initially thought to be about 65 per cent, but the Delta variant has raised it to 85-90 per cent.

For achieving herd immunity equitably worldwide, the developed nations should not corner the vaccines and, thereby, deny access to the poorer nations. The rich nations should not be stocking up for the third or fourth booster doses while others are yet to receive their first dose. The WHO is against such ‘vaccine nationalism’.

Thus, given the grim scenario, world leaders and top scientists should pay heed to the fact that coronavirus is continuously evolving and, as the WHO has asserted, move faster on all fronts before more dangerous variants emerge. The scientists, on their part, must strive to produce better vaccines to ensure long-term immunity against the virus. Even as this is being done, the people should continue to observe Covid- appropriate protocol.

The writer is a former ISS and UN consultant

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