In a landmark announcement, UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths recently expressed optimism that he would get the Yemeni parties to return to the negotiating table two years after the last round of face-to-face talks collapsed. Let’s step back a little from current day to the spark of the crisis.

With its first spark in Tunisia, the Arab Spring domino has been disastrous for many of the geographies it rolled into. Largely, three directional courses were charted. The first (and most harmless) course had Governments respond with lethal threat and force. The second course had countries recoil and spring back semblances of people’s rule, only to be upstaged by multi players. The last were a set of unfortunate geographies, which are still at war.

Yemen, belongs to the third course. One of the poorest countries in the Middle East, its already pulverised infrastructure and economy became a proxy military battleground for regional powers. Though the numbers are disputed, Shia Muslims form close to 35 per cent of Yemen’s population, and Sunnis the rest.

The Houthis are a predominantly Shia political movement based in Saada in northern Yemen. They have been waging a low intensity insurgency against the Yemeni government for more than a decade now. The conflict scaled up after the Arab Spring. The Yemen war began in March 2015, when a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states launched air strikes against Houthi targets after the group started to advance towards southern Yemen. Three years on, estimates on war casualties range from 10,000-35,000 with more than 60,000 wounded.

The biggest impact however, has been widespread starvation and a cholera outbreak. With thousands dead due to cholera and more than 8 million Yemenis at the risk of starvation, this is one of the biggest humanitarian crises confronting the world.

The UAE/Saudi coalition just recently launched (mid-June) an all-out operation against the Houthi controlled western port city of Hodeidah. Hodeidah is Yemen’s key commercial centre, through which more than 70 per cent of the country’s imports, food and aid shipments flow. An offensive by the Saudi coalition to retake the city has always been inevitable.

Seized by the Houthis early in the war, the city has been subject to a Saudi-led coalition blockade since 2015, which humanitarian organisations say is largely responsible for leaving eight million Yemenis on the brink of famine. A total sealing off of the port in November 2017 by the Saudi coalition is estimated to have pushed an additional 3 million people into hunger, the World Food Programme says. The Saudi-led coalition has a distinct advantage in terms of size which may be crucial for bringing about a settlement.

The Houthis have indicated interest in negotiation and Oman (which enjoys confidence of the Houthi leadership) will play a key role in the process. This is also a moment when the focus should shift from military operations to the political process. The war fatigued people of this nation need to look forward to the emergence of a peace process and possible trade engagements with the Saudis and the Emiratis. A year from now, Yemen might be trudging along, on the path to recovery. Hopefully.

The writer is a geo-political analyst

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