As a former senior officer in the Cabinet Secretariat, with rich experience in analysing the behaviour of Pakistani terrorists, has opined recently, there is little doubt that the Pakistani military — as opposed to independent terrorist groups — was involved in the January 8 killing of two Indian jawans along the Line of Control and, more importantly, the mutilation of their bodies.

The officer, now retired, has said that, following the incident, the Pakistan Army “has mounted a disinformation campaign to deny its involvement in the incident and to allege a diversionary attempt by the Indian Army to divert attention from some recent domestic developments in India, such as the students’ protest over a gang-rape incident”.

If the Pakistan military (as opposed to the Pakistani Government) was involved directly in the incident, it must have had a purpose in staging it. What was that objective? Was it to revive interest once again in the “India sector” which, in recent times, appears to have been pushed to the sidelines, with the threat posed by the Taliban topping the list?

Change in doctrine

Was it to underscore the importance of the “India front” in the scheme of things outlined by a “new doctrine” developed by the Pakistan military? Reports quoting Pakistan security analysts said that the change in doctrine was a “paradigm shift”.

Hitherto, India had always occupied the number one slot in the Pakistan military’s conventional doctrine with weapons and preparations being always directed against India. But, for the first time, Islamabad “had admitted that the real threat was emanating internally”.

Or, was it Army Chief, General A. P. Kayani’s way of hitting back at those who had begun criticising the military following the Pakistan Supreme Court’s ruling in the Asghar Khan case -- featuring ISI funding of politicians, the Public Accounts Committee’s investigations involving three Generals among others, and the National Accountability Bureau’s probe into another scam involving three other Generals?

Kayani, reports late last year said, was under pressure “from his constituency in the cantonments and barracks” to hit back at the “unrelenting and unfair campaign” against the men in khaki.

In both the scenarios, the scale of the Indian reaction is an important input for success.

Pakistan’s involvement

A third possibility is based on the premise that the Pakistan Army is faction-ridden, and that those who do not quite see eye-to-eye with the present chief — who, it can be assumed, was very much behind the “new military doctrine” — engineered the Mendhar-sector brutality.

Whatever the motives at work, the Pakistan Army’s involvement in the LoC incident seems confirmed.

New Delhi cannot allow this challenge to pass, by employing the soft line favoured by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Indian Army chief, Gen. Bikram Singh, did well to reassure the nation as well as the armed forces earlier this week that such provocations would not be allowed to pass without a carefully calibrated but, effective, response.

However, care must also be taken to keep in mind the fact that the Pakistan military establishment wants the India-front to keep boiling, which would allow it to continue calling the shots on the domestic scene.

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