The Trump transition team wasted no time in taking credit for the ceasefire between the Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel even as rest of the world is seeing if the truce is a good sign for a battered Gaza.

“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump. His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated”, said Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor pick.

The Biden administration’s NSA Jake Sullivan could not let the remark pass: “… you know you’ve done a really good thing when other people take credit for it”.

Right now no one is paying attention to who has to be credited with the breakthrough rather on two immediate things: whether the ceasefire will hold and what it means for Gaza that has been reeling for the last 14 months with at least 44,000 Palestinians dead.

In the midst of all voices of hope there is also the stark reminder that Lebanon is not Gaza; that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a tough time with the far right and that Gaza will be a tougher sell as many in his coalition wish to see a permanent Israeli occupation of the small strip of land.

Israel invasion

Two days after the Hamas terror attack on October 6, 2023, the Hezbollah started firing rockets into northern Israel opening up the front for gradual escalation leading to a full fledged invasion this September leaving a number of militant members dead and the specific targeting of the leadership by the Jewish state.

Media reports speak of close to 4,000 casualties and more than one million fleeing from their homes.

Israel too has had to face the brunt in the North and South with civilians and military personnel killed.

In the immediate context it may be argued that a ceasefire in Lebanon restricts the hand of the Hezbollah in the Gaza as any outreach to the Hamas would be seen as a violation and hence a pretext for Israel to strike.

But to the Jewish state, the situation in Gaza has always been different in that Netanyahu has consistently called for the total elimination of Hamas with some of the more militant coalition members eyeing a permanent occupation of that sliver of land for strategic and security purposes.

“Gaza will never be a threat to the state of Israel again… We will reach a decisive victory there. Lebanon is different”, Israeli Agriculture Minister and former head of intelligence agency Shin Bet, Avi Dichter has been quoted. “Are we at the beginning of the end (of the Gaza campaign)? Definitely not. We still have a lot to do”, he added.

Hostage factor

For a start, Gaza is a different cup of tea for the simple reason that at stake are over 100 hostages in the hands of the Hamas.

To some, the ceasefire in Lebanon has weakened the chances of a deal over the hostages as the Hezbollah pressure on the Hamas would have been weakened.

But what has to be kept in mind is that the issue of hostages release was not really a single shot deal; rather it involved release of thousands of Palestinians languishing in Israeli jails and the future political role for the Hamas in Gaza.

In calling for the total Israeli withdrawal, Hamas has rejected any idea of itself disarming or staying out of the political arena.

But Netanyahu may not wish to weaken his political standing in the coalition. Members are already said to be upset over the turn of events in Lebanon and that a “deal” with Hamas would only further enrage his coalition partners.

US President Joe Biden may wish to leave behind a Gaza deal before stepping down in January 2025, but Prime Minister Netanyahu may not wish to see elections to the Knesset prior to the scheduled October 2026 dateline.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations