There are two main outcomes of the 2024 general election. One, the BJP will, in all likelihood, form the government for the third consecutive term with Narendra Modi as a highly diminished Prime Minister.

Two, if he does, it will be the first time that he has been unable to win an outright victory and has to work in a coalition, even if a small one, and be dependent on two undependable allies.

This mixed outcome is both good and bad. The reason for the BJP’s poor showing is the success of the Congress strategy of saying that the BJP will amend the Constitution to take away reservation for the backward castes. That, and the consolidated Muslim vote, has worked against the BJP in UP where it has perhaps lost as many as 30 of the 62 seats it had won in 2019.

All eyes on allies

It’s been a body blow. Much now depends on the manner in which the BJP’s allies, mainly the TDP in Andhra Pradesh and the JDU in Bihar which account for about 35 seats, choose to bargain.

The gap between the NDA and the INDIA alliance is so small, just about 60 seats, that they can make a difference to which formation forms the next government. The Congress party has said that it will discuss the possibilities on Wednesday with its partners. So, as of today, the matter of who forms the next government is still open and it’s up to the President as to who she invites to form it.

Constitutionally she has to invite the single largest party first and ask it to prove its majority on the floor of the House. The BJP is the largest single party. So it does look as if it is game, set and match to the BJP. Once it forms the government it can quite easily increase its number of seats in Parliament. It’s a past master at this.

Politics and the BJP’s aggressive tactics aside, if Modi is invited to form the next government, it will only be the third time in India that a party and its leader are becoming Prime Minister for the third time, and only the second time that it’s for the third successive time. (In case there is some puzzlement about this, let me remind you that Indira Gandhi led three governments — 1966-71, 1971-77 and 1980-84.)

Third stint blues

That said it is rare in modern democracies anywhere for a party or its leader to be elected for a third term, let alone a third successive term. This feat might sound impressive but it is not without the risks that arise primarily from the leader’s sense that this is the last chance to carry forward his or her vision.

It results in major errors of judgement. We have two examples in India: Jawaharlal Nehru and his daughter Indira Gandhi. Nehru had three successive terms and in his third term made the mistake of giving Mao Zedong the opportunity to attack India in 1962. India came off very badly in that war. Indira Gandhi didn’t have three successive terms but she was sworn in as Prime Minister three times.

In her third term she made a mistake in her handling of the politics of Punjab. That eventually cost her her life.

Abroad we have the examples of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair. Both became prime ministers for three successive terms. Both ended their careers very badly. Thatcher alienated her party over the poll tax — which is a fixed per capita tax regardless of income — and Blair over his participation in the Iraq war when it turned out that he had known that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Modi also runs the risk which arises from the belief that this is the last stab at the job. He is almost 74 now and will be 79 in 2029. This feeling could be quite reinforced now because this election was only about him and he has not been able to pull off a simple majority. He would therefore have to guard against major errors of judgement that are made when circumstances combine to provoke them.

Constructive Opposition

The Opposition too will have to behave itself. It had plenty of MPs in the last Parliament but made it impossible for it to function by its disruptive strategies. One must hope that just as the voter has matured and given a thumbs down to the BJP, the Opposition too will reward the voter by behaving sensibly.

Finally, India needs to ponder over a larger issue: do we have to resign ourselves to coalitions and minority governments and whether the 10 years after 2014 were an aberration. After all, in the 35 years since 1989 they have been the norm for six of the eight governments since then.

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