Modi’s Afghanistan challenge

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a problem. The US is slated to completely withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016, mid-way through the term of his government.

In doing so, the US would inadvertently send an open invitation to global terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and India-focused groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba to return to Afghanistan and set up shop. Early indications of this noxious scenario are already evident.

The Afghan story did not have to unfold like this. When Presdient Barack Obama said, even as Modi was being sworn-in, “We have to recognise Afghanistan will not be a perfect place, and it is not America’s responsibility to make it one,” he was not only factually incorrect but also politically naïve.

It is, after all, the US that switched its mission from the war on terrorism to nation-building.

Anyone who has studied Afghanistan with any objectivity would know that the investment in Afghanistan is well worth the price. Continued engagement with Afghanistan in both the military and developmental spheres would accrue gains that would transcend Afghanistan and South Asia.

A long-term presence in Afghanistan also offers the international community the means to monitor the global roots of terrorism and religious despotism in neighbouring Pakistan.

Afghanistan is not a ‘perfect place’, but then which country in the world is? Great powers do not just shake up the foundations of a state in order to reconstitute it and then abandon the undertaking halfway.

This is irresponsibility. Afghanistan needed ‘strategic patience’ from its international partners, especially the US. If it were the case that the progress in Afghanistan was untenable, the rationale for discontinuation of this engagement is understandable.

But the story of Afghanistan since 2001 is anything but discouraging.

By any standard, Afghanistan, over the last 12 years, is a socially, economically and politically transformed country.

Its human development indicators as well as economic progress attest to this claim. The nationwide improvements in both quantitative and qualitative access to healthcare, education, road networks, power and electricity are commendable.

There is a noticeable surge in optimism among the Afghans about their presidential election. While this may be more valid for the urban elites, the educated technocrats and those who enjoy access to power, it nonetheless mirrors an extraordinary trend. Despite the failures of the government and the fraud in the previous elections, Afghans showed willingness to give democracy another chance. Their optimism criss-crosses from Kandahar to Mazar and from Herat to Jalalabad. A democratic system with its flaws seems more acceptable to Afghans than having no system at all.

Nation-building is a matter of several decades, not a few election cycles. The world should be proud, even boastful, of what has been accomplished in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ endorsement of their democratic polity and the electoral processes that underscores it gives us bragging rights. The international community could have, should have, persevered and continued this partnership with the Afghans. Obama’s latest decision to pull out US military forces completely from Afghanistan by the end of 2016 does just the opposite.

This has ominous portents for stability in Afghanistan and the region. To confront this challenge, Modi should commit himself to lobbying the West to continue their non-military, developmental engagement with Afghanistan.

The Western developmental footprint with a diplomatic face could at least signal to the Afghans and their enemies that the West is disengaging militarily but not abandoning Afghanistan completely. It will also enable India to strengthen Afghan civil society, train their bureaucracy and leaders, and invest in the Afghan youth. Modi should also work closely with the next Afghan leader — be it Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai — in enabling Afghans consolidate their democratic gains.

And, finally, Modi should reach out to Russia, China and Afghanistan’s northern and western neighbours to reconstitute an alliance that supports the voices of reason that confront the Taliban. Each of these countries has a stake in Afghanistan’s stability.

Each has a lot to lose if the Taliban returns to power. The only major point of difference between them and Delhi’s position on Afghanistan has been the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan. Now that the withdrawal of foreign forces is a settled matter, it is time to strengthen an alliance that supports the anti-Taliban movement in Afghanistan.

This is an occasion to demonstrate leadership. For someone who has come to power in Delhi because of his leadership in Gujarat and his opposition’s lack of it at the Centre, Afghanistan offers the first litmus test. All Modi needs to remember is that it was the administration of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who extended support to anti-Taliban forces in the late 1990s.

Prime Minister Modi would thus be wise to act soon and decisively. The cost of delay and endless deliberation would be prohibitive for the region.

Arni is a retired intelligence officer. Tondon is a researcher focussing on Afghanistan politics