The Assembly polls in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram are being termed as the “semi-finals” and an opportunity for the polity to endorse a “Modi wave” before the Parliamentary polls in May.

But there is a distinct lack of a unifying theme or a dominant national issue across the poll-bound states, even after notification of the elections.

The very same states in 2004 and 2008 had clearly proven that these are no semi-final contests. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had bucked the national trend in the last two assembly polls, voting the BJP to power when the rest of the country chose the Congress. Delhi had gone against the national mood in 1998.

In fact, the last two Parliamentary polls showed that Delhi's urban voters had more in common with Mumbaikars than their neighbours, say, in Uttar Pradesh. And Rajasthan has been trying out Congress and BJP every five years for the last two decades. Each of these states has its own set of distinct issues.

Sure, Delhi may be discussing national issues and the Delhi unit of BJP could have got a booster dose of enthusiasm with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi getting anointed as the Prime Ministerial candidate -- but that is unique to a metropolis. Urban voters can be coaxed to overcome narrow sectarian compulsions and vote for an outsider like George Fernandes in Bombay South or C. Krishnan Nair in outer Delhi.

But the same George Fernandes in Muzaffarpur in Bihar or Muslim League leader G.M. Banatwala in Ponnani in Kerala would be at the mercy of local leaders and the provincial caste and communal calculus.

So, is the BJP trying to craft a “Modi wave” in the four Hindi heartland states, turning Modi's Prime Ministerial candidature into a talking point, where local issues generally dominate the discourse? Can that work?

Anti-incumbency

Rajasthan: Voters have been growing impatient, particularly in states that have begun to experiment with alternating governments. By changing its government every five years in the last 20 years, Rajasthan seems to be teaching its legislators a lesson in accountability.

There is still no reason to think that the pattern will change this time around. Anti-incumbency seems to be the single biggest factor in the assembly polls troubling chief minister Ashok Gehlot and aiding BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje Scindia.

Both the parties trade corruption charges against each other. Gehlot’s five years of rule were marred by many allegations of graft, while Raje still has not shaken off the charges brought in by her former aide Lalit Modi.

In the last six months Gehlot is credited with executing social security measures in the rural areas like improved health care, free medicines, old age pension and veterinary care.

While the Congress itself had earlier written Rajasthan off, now, Congressmen speak of a revival in their prospects. BJP leaders feel that the “Modi factor” would bring in that extra zing to consolidate upper caste votes. No doubt, the urban centres have responded positively to the Sangh Parivar's Modi mantra, but the BJP may still have to fight it out in a close contest.

Madhya Pradesh: Congress’ infighting seems to be helping the BJP overcome anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. Allegations of corruption do not seem to have stuck on Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The people’s anger seems to be aimed more at the legislators for their lack of commitment than the ruling party or the Chief Minister. Chauhan should be grateful to the Congress for such a happy situation.

The many camps in the state Congress unit led by Digvijaya Singh, Kamal Nath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and former chief minister Arjun Singh's son, Ajay Singh, have not been able to lead a united attack against the BJP or drum up allegations of corruption.

Infighting

If the veterans, Digvijaya Singh, Kamal Nath and Ajay Singh still join hands to help Jyotiraditiya emerge as a potential chief ministerial candidate and rally behind him, the Scindia scion could give Chauhan a run for his money.

But Congressmen rarely work hard for fellow leaders or for their party to achieve power. It is personal ambition that drives Congressmen to the top. In fact, most often Congress is swept back to power by the TINA factor or a wave of anger against the incumbent or some sympathy sentiment, without anyone actually working hard for the party.

Chhatisgarh: The Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh is also in a similar situation of advantage. His effective public distribution system and affordable rice for the miserably poor people of Bastar and other tribal regions resulted in 20 out of 29 tribal seats for BJP in the last assembly polls.

In Bastar region alone, the BJP won 11 out of 12 seats. Interestingly, the BJP could achieve all this even after neglecting tribal leaders like Nandkumar Sai. With Mahendra Karma's death in a Maoist attack in May this year and Ajit Jogi continuing with his games of intrigue to get back to power, the Congress party is in disarray.

There is virtually no challenge for Raman Singh's leadership from within and outside. Jogi’s disability will seriously hamper him from emerging as the single biggest leader of Chhattisgarh. The Leader of Opposition, Ravindra Chaubey, a Brahmin, does not seem to have a support base beyond Durg district.

There, surely, is no overarching theme for these assembly elections in the Hindi heartland. Even if the BJP sweeps the four states, except Mizoram, it still is no guarantee that the party could repeat the feat in the Parliamentary polls. For instance, the biggest poll issue in Andhra Pradesh is the division of the state.

The status of Hyderabad and the partition of resources are the real “burning” issues for the state, rather than a Modi-Rahul fight.

A victory in the assembly polls can, however, really boost the confidence of leaders, campaigners, workers and the party apparatus as a whole. In that sense, these polls sound the bells for the final lap, and whoever is ahead will obviously feel elated.

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