This script has been played out innumerable times in the past, so it should not hold many surprises. What is though perplexing is the manner and the time in which this exploration for peace is coming about. Pakistan is now in election mode and would be under a caretaker government and ideally should not really engage in peace talks with India — a matter that should be left to the next government. Though, there is a parallel narrative, too, in Islamabad, which suggests that a new government, once it is elected, would not really make a difference to the country’s neighbourhood policy, as it is the army that will decide on ties with Delhi.

Reciprocation to Pakistan has come from India through baby steps. Ceasefire in Kashmir, participation in Shanghai Cooperation related events and return of track-2 diplomacy, after years of being derailed, suggests that peace is being re-packaged again for a new reality.

This view was corroborated in Islamabad during an interaction that the Director-General of the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), General Asif Ghafoor, had with the visiting South Asian journalists recently. He amply indicated that the Pakistan army was beyond the stage of inserting itself in the dialogue process with India. He found nothing unusual in the army intervening in foreign policy issues and claimed that in India, too, the civilian government consults the top brass of the army before talking with Pakistan.

General Ghafoor’s well-attended media interaction could be the envy of any Pakistan politician as the political class struggles to preserve influence in a society where the army, in the name of fighting external and internal enemies to save the country and democracy, pretty much controls everything.

General Ghafoor was merely articulating a view aired recently by his boss, Chief of Army Staff Qamar Javad Bajwa, where he had asked the civilian government to mend ties with India. However, Gen Ghafoor’s statement at this juncture is a bit bewildering for those who believe that Pakistan’s internal political dynamics do not really allow this.

Caretaker angle

Firstly, the country will be having a caretaker government till elections that are scheduled in a few months. Secondly, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has raised the banner of revolt against the army and has blamed them for everything that has gone wrong with the country including allowing non-state actors to cross into India and kill 150 people in Mumbai.

His attack coincides with the Pashtun agitation operating under the rubric of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) led by a young Pashtun leader, Manzoor Ahmad Pashteen, who has fired the imagination of all those who resent the manner in which Pakistan democracy has got smothered in the name of fighting terror. The Pashtuns are the biggest sufferers of this bloody war initiated under the pressure from the United States. Hundreds of thousands of Pashtus have been driven out of their land. Their old towns like Miran Shah were flattened during their military operation called Zarb-e-ash. The follow up operation to root out the alleged militants hidden in the towns and cities of Pakistan, Radd-ul-fasad, has done more harm. Under this operation, the army along with intelligence agencies has targeted the Pashtu belligerents in different cities.

PTM, which draws inspiration from Frontier Gandhi, Badshah Khan, is a peaceful movement and tries to lend voice to those whose relatives have disappeared or died in these operations. Agitators claim the disappearance of 32,000 Pashtuns since the Pakistan army waged a war on its own people. Pakistani army Chief Bajwa calls their protest as an “engineered” and hints at Indian involvement.

The Pakistan army sees India as the centre of its problems and as their control over the media increases, it is possible to hear many media personalities agreeing with their narrative. Amazingly, senior editors are quick to question the motive of the columnist Cyril Almeida, who not only interviewed Nawaz Sharif, but also had earlier (2016) exposed the tension between Civilian and Military over the freedom Mumbai terror accused, Hafiz Sayeed, enjoyed in the Pakistani society.

According to his report, known as “Dawn leak”, the country was facing international isolation as the army had failed to fight against the terrorists. This expose had brought to the fore growing tensions between Sharif and the army, which finally saw him coming to grief at the hands of the judiciary.

Why does the army want to talk with India now? There are differing views on this. First is the dominant China angle. Ever since the Chinese spent $53 billion on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) they have begun to exercise considerable influence on the Pakistani army and the economy. Pakistan army swears by CPEC and routinely expresses its resolve to protect it against all threats, which to everyone implies India — more so as the surgical strikes, as sources claim, came threateningly close to some of these installations.

China factor

China has been asking Pakistan to clean up its act when it comes to its relationship with non-state actors. Almeida’s 2016 report provided ample hints about their anxieties. Since then Beijing has been tough with Pakistan on sorting out issues of law and order in those areas where the CPEC projects are coming up. Though the relationship between the two countries is deep and strong, the Chinese agreed to vote with India to put Pakistan in the grey list of those countries that have a dodgy record in terror funding. This was a painful realisation for Islamabad that their “ iron brother” would not support them all the time.

There are other reasons too why Pakistan wants to normalise relations with India. As members of the Shanghai Cooperation (SCO), sub-continental neighbours, ideally, should not have dispute and participate in military exercises against terrorists. SCO, which is called the Asian NATO, also expects member countries to share intelligence against terror outfits. This is a tricky issue, but China and Russia are pushing hard both, India and Pakistan, to work together without being prisoners of their past. This is easier said than done as domestic politics in the sub-continental neighbours is leavened by this blood feud.

The other factor that’s driving Pakistan to return to the negotiating table is US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and his dislike for them. Though Pakistan has drawn closer to China and Russia, there is little guarantee on what the US President might do to explore his idea of peace in Afghanistan after he dropped a mother of all bombs many months ago.

These are interesting times as the region tries to reinvent peace again.

The writer is is the Editor of Hardnews and was recently in Islamabad

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