It was a dramatic title for a book that came out back in 1985. “Pakistan on the Brink” was the edgy name commentator Ahmed Rashid gave for his grim assessment of the direction in which his country was heading.

Since then, Pakistan has been on the verge of toppling over many cliffs. Somehow, it always clings on by its fingertips. But this commentator must admit he was sorely tempted to declare the last nail had just been hammered into the coffin of Pakistan’s always fragile democracy. So, let’s just say the last nail has been placed in position — and it’s just waiting for a man or woman or mob to come and bang it down.

What’s gone wrong this time? It’s pretty much accepted the last election was more than manipulated by the army and yanked away from Imran Khan. The army discovered the larger-than-life cricketer, who began as their protégé, wasn’t following their orders and was even trying to build a mass base of his own. He had to be more or less erased from Pakistan’s political map. He’s been in jail since May 2023 but, without the slightest doubt, he remains the towering shadow looming over the country’s political parties — and their military bosses.

It’s safe to say this government is a vulnerable beast at best. Now, a new threat has emerged that could wrench it from power. This mortal threat is coming from Pakistan’s Supreme Court. Pakistan’s Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa was due to retire October 25 and the army and government feared the next man who inherited the crown of thorns might not be very sympathetic to its anti-Imran project. Might they release him from jail, or worse, declare the last election fatally flawed?

The situation was a desperate one and time was short. Could Isa, the sitting chief justice, be given an extension? Alternatively, the judiciary had to be brought to heel, by hook or by crook — and before October 25. This required a massive constitutional amendment that would render the courts relatively powerless.

The first attempt to push through a bill with these sweeping changes had to be withdrawn after it became clear it wouldn’t pass the legislature with the requisite two-thirds majority.

The last few weeks have seen a whirlwind of wheeling-and-dealing as all Pakistan’s political forces scrambled to cobble together the necessary two-thirds. The key player appears to have been Fazlur Rehman, Pakistan’s wiliest political poker player, who had seemed cornered in recent months.

Once again, Rehman’s emerged triumphant, cementing his position as a force without whom no deals can be struck. Famously known as Maulana Diesel (for previous corrupt practices) in political circles, Rehman has come out of this dealmaking round with more honour than he’s managed in the past.

Rehman played his cards cannily, persuading the government to ease back on their demands. He appears to have been the key figure who persuaded the other main actors in the game to tone down the constitutional changes, thus enabling a deal. Even Imran Khan’s PTI agreed to abstain and not oppose the sweeping amendments.

Constitutional changes

Under the changes, the chief justice will be chosen from the three senior-most judges by a Special Parliamentary Committee of legislators, where the government holds the majority. The constitutional changes have provoked a sharp rebuke from the International Court of Justice (ICJ). “These changes bring an extraordinary level of political influence over the process of judicial appointments and the judiciary’s own administration,” chided Santiago Canton, ICJ’s Secretary General in a statement. But all this non-stop political manipulation has created a new government that can be best described as shaky and a political situation that’s combustible. The mobs aren’t out on the streets yet but don’t be too surprised if they suddenly make an appearance.

Mind you, the current government, illegitimate though it may be, has achieved just about as much as could be expected under the circumstances. The deal with the IMF has been settled. Inflation is down from the sky-high 30 per cent where it was stuck for almost two years. Could it be a sign of stability that petrol prices are down from a peak of PKR 300 a litre to PKR 250?

Still, the auto industry’s been in the dumps for the past year, showing little signs of recovery. Now, even the textile industry is in dire straits with a poor cotton crop putting the mills in a tough position.

Can Pakistan pull through amidst all these difficulties? It has done so in the past but this time the situation is looking darker than ever.

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