As if 2024 wasn’t starting on a sufficiently grim note, there’s a mini-war happening not far from India’s borders. We don’t have missiles flying our way but the chaos the conflict is causing on world trade routes could hit us all. Also, Iran has just despatched a warship to the Red Sea and that enormously hikes risks of a clash between it and the US Navy.
On one side are the Houthis, the Iran-armed rebels who control most of Yemen and say they’re acting in solidarity with the Palestinians. On the other is just about the whole world, with a few exceptions. The Houthi attacks could disrupt not only India’s oil imports and exports but any commodity travelling via the Suez Canal. For example, the Indian-flagged tanker Jag Lokesh which left Sikka port, now is making the tortuously long journey round the Cape of Good Hope to Rotterdam, adding around nine days’ journey time.
The Jag Lokesh took a fast decision to make the protracted Cape voyage because of the Houthis who have launched around 100 attacks on ships in the last few weeks and boast an impressive arsenal from remote-controlled explosive-laden boats and naval mines to anti-ship missiles and drones.
While the US has launched what it calls the Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial shipping and sent an aircraft carrier and a flotilla of small ships to the region, its allies appear to be unenthusiastic about actively joining them.
For now, the world’s shipping giants are mostly waiting to evaluate how dangerous the threat is. Look at AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest container ship company, which first ordered its ships in the Red Sea region to stay in standstill mode. Then, persuaded its ships would get US Navy protection, it resumed sailing Christmas Day through the Red Sea. On December 30, another Maersk ship, the Hangzhou, faced a drone attack followed by Houthis in small boats who tried to board it. US Navy helicopters sank the small boats, killing 10 Houthis. But Maersk has again halted Red Sea journeys. Similarly, shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd and at least two other big companies have stopped transiting the Red Sea.
Who are the Houthis? They’re Shiite Muslims who now control most of Yemen. While the Houthis were claiming they were only attacking ships with “ties to Israel,” that definition has widened considerably and most targets have no evident Israeli links. They’re also no ragamuffin pirates but a well-trained and equipped commando-style force. The Houthis even made a video recording of how they landed by helicopter and took over a ship, the Galaxy Leader, and forced it into a Yemeni port.
They’re able to hold world shipping to ransom because the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits connecting the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea is only 22 miles wide at its narrowest point. They’ve also been hitting ships much further out at sea. The MV Chem Pluto, for instance, was attacked 200 nautical miles from the Gujarat coast in the Arabian Sea. The US insists the missile that hit the Chem Pluto was fired from inside Iran.
Impact on India
For India, there’s a two-fold reason why it’s important to keep merchant navy ships safe. Firstly, there’s the danger to Europe-Asia trade. Thirty-three per cent of our crude oil imports reach us via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea (though Russia’s sailing unimpeded as it’s viewed as an Iranian ally). Similarly, 25 per cent of the oil products we export travel by the same route.
Beyond that, there’s the fact many of the world’s cargo and cruise ships are crewed by Indians. There are 1.5 million seafarers globally and between 150,000-200,000 Indians manning merchant navy ships worldwide.
Just how Indian sailors can be in danger became clear when a Norwegian ship, the Strinda, was set ablaze by a Houthi missile. The Houthis then ordered the Strinda to sail into a Yemeni port. “Alter your course with your maximum speed. Otherwise you will be attacked,” says a Houthi voice. The Indian voice on the ship insists the ship’s engine has been damaged and can’t obey the order. In the background, other crew members can be heard talking in Hindi. With backing from a French naval vessel, the Strinda sailed to a friendly port. The Chem Pluto also had a crew of 20 Indians and one Vietnamese.
The Houthis have vowed revenge for their sailors who were killed by the US Navy during the attack on Maersk’s Hangzhou. Meanwhile, the Israelis insist their war could drag on for most of 2024. That could indeed be very bad news for India and the world.