There is speculation galore on the possible candidates for the post of President, for which elections will be held in July. Interestingly, it's not the Congress or the BJP who are speculating on the prospective Presidential candidates, but the regional parties.
They are the main newsmakers on the run-up to the 14th Presidential elections to elect the 13th President of India. They are trying to put together a voting formation against the Congress and the BJP. They insist that every effort by the big parties to thrust a “consensus” candidate on them will be challenged.
So, possibly for the first time in the country's history, it is the regional parties who are making the first moves on election of the new President.
UNITY MOVES
The Congress has ownership over 31 per cent of the total votes in the Presidential polls. The BJP has 24 per cent, while the non-Congress, non-BJP parties account for 45 per cent of the electoral college.
This fact makes it clear that the regional parties hold the key to the Presidential polls, unless the Congress and the BJP reach a consensus on the next President. There is a fear among the regional parties that the two big parties will come up with a joint face for the post. This has prompted them to start consultations among themselves, ahead of the Congress and the BJP.
There could be several reasons for this enthusiasm. It's not just the general political atmosphere in favour of upholding “federalism.” It's also an effort to take on the Big Two, sensing that they are on a “weak wicket”.
Thus far, regional parties have voted for the candidates of the national parties. The candidates of Opposition parties like Tridip Chowdhury, V R Krishna Iyer, H R Khanna, G G Swell, Captain Lakshmi or Bhairon Singh Shekhawat failed to elicit much response from the regional belt.
Old timers recall that only Justice Iyer, who fought against R Venkataraman, could fetch some votes from the regional parties.
Presidential elections have created strange bedfellows. Candidates like A P J Abdul Kalam brought the Congress and the BJP together.
So, the popular notion that the regional parties will not be able to project a candidate acceptable to everyone may go wrong this time. Political observers are looking at a triangular contest for the President's job. The Samajwadi Party is the largest of the regional parties. It has 224 MLAs in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly and 30 MPs in Parliament (combining the strength in both Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha).
It has 1.30 lakh votes in an electoral college of 10.98 lakh votes. No wonder, the party is trying to project none other than its supremo, Mulayam Singh Yadav, as the candidate for the post.
His emissaries have already met the leaders of CPI, CPI(M) and the Trinamool Congress. The effort is just to test the waters, not to make any “serious” announcements.
QUIET TALKS
It is not just the SP which is interested. The AIADMK, the Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, NCP (a national party) and the Telugu Desam Party are also keen to make an effort. J Jayalalithaa and Naveen Patnaik have already held a round of discussions on the issue. The NCP and the Trinamool Congress have so far been non-committal on supporting any candidates, but were receptive to feelers sent by regional satraps, as were the Left parties.
The Trinamool Congress has 45,000 votes and the Left parties have about 51,000 votes. The AIADMK has 35,000 and the BJD 29,000 votes in the electoral college.
The prospective candidates, whose names are doing the rounds, are also meeting the regional leaders. Former West Bengal Governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi recently met Naveen Patnaik over lunch.
Vice-President Hamid Ansari, who was on an official visit to Orissa, also met the Chief Minister, and so did the Power Minister, Sushil Kumar Shinde. Why are the “prospective” candidates trying to meet a Chief Minister, whose party has just 29,000 votes? It means BJD is not alone. Indications are that Trinamool Congress, BJD, AIADMK and the TDP have already reached an “understanding” on the issue. The parties are working on SP, NCP, JD(U) and the Left.
The Left officially wants the government to announce its candidate first. They, however, are not averse to the idea of a candidate who is acceptable to the regional chieftains.
The Congress, as usual, is yet to reach out to even its allies. At the moment, their priority is to get the Finance Bill and other Budget papers passed in Parliament.
We will have to wait and watch whether the Congress will be ready to accept someone for President who will not be their candidate.
The BJP is keenly watching moves by regional parties. However, the BJP's efforts to put forward former President A P J Abdul Kalam for another term seem to have crashed at the initial stage. Even the SP, which is an admirer of Mr Kalam, is reportedly not keen to push his candidature.
The Presidential election is likely to be triangular fight if the regional parties opt to question both the Congress and the BJP. The picture will be clearer by the end of May.