Less than two months to go for the November 5 final showdown and a handful of days away from the first debate face off between the contenders, all eyes are on the six battleground states that are likely to decide the 2024 Presidential election.
Political pundits used to say that the Road to the White House ran through Ohio, meaning that if a candidate did not get the Buckeye state, the chances of getting into the Oval Office were slim. Today it is crucial to have a good showing in at least three of the battlegrounds, if not just one: Pennsylvania.
A latest CNN poll is sort of a mixed bag with neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris in any position to celebrate. Both are locked in tight races with the lead of Vice-President Harris at 1 per cent in Georgia and Nevada; and tied in Pennsylvania.
Even the razor thin leads of Harris are well within the margin of error. The comfort to Harris comes from a six and five point lead in Wisconsin and Michigan respectively and former President Trump pulling off a five point lead in Arizona. In 2020 President Joe Biden carried all six states.
Final lap
Labor Day (first Monday in September) in a Presidential election signals that the campaigns have entered the stretch with little time to either look back or waste. In the current context there is considerable interest in the September 10 debate between Harris and Trump. Trump’s team knows how high the stakes are and hope that their man stays focussed instead of going on a rant.
Unleashing toxic tirades are unique to the former President who has already started saying that ABC News is a biased network and that Harris will be getting easy questions.
Right now the two campaigns are duking it out on who has the momentum with the Harris camp clearly pleased on the distance travelled by the Vice-President since the time Biden graciously bowed out in July. The quick endorsements within the party apart, Vice-President Harris has amassed a whopping $450 million or so in contributions. And sitting on a comfortable kitty, Harris has decided to give away a small portion of this to fund Democratic races at State levels.
Harris continues to see herself as an “underdog” going against an opponent who has been in the Presidential fray three times starting 2016 and seems to hold the sway when it comes to the economy and immigration even if nearly one half of likely voters in swing states perceiving Trump’s views and policies are so extreme that they are a threat. In all this there is also the stark realisation that the race could be decided by a few hundred or thousand votes in the critical six states with about 15 per cent still sitting in the “undecided” category.
The political campaigning is not without its sideshows: Republicans abandoning the former President and endorsing Harris, the latest being Liz Cheney; shifting questions on Trump’s own mental acuity; and on what the 45th President would do if he ended up losing on November 5.
Aside from whipping up the fear phenomenon on the streets in the event of a loss, commentators are pointing out that Trump and his supporters have already started laying the groundwork for legal challenges should they come up short in the Electoral College votes.
All this despite court challenges falling by the wayside over the 2020 election.
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations