Fumio Kishida had not even entered politics when in 1983 the former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Naksone set off a storm in his own country and in the Asia Pacific saying that Japan would be the US’ “Aircraft Carrier”, undoubtedly a reference to being a major force not just in a bilateral sense but in international relations at the peak of the Cold War.
Some of Nakasone’s rhetoric may have had to do with matching the threat of Soviet Union, but found a highly receptive chord in Washington by way of the Reagan administration. And 39 years down the line Prime Minister Kishida has put forth a bold five years defence spending outlay of nearly $320 billion that has internally raised constitutional, political and economic questions besides rankling known names in the Indo-Pacific.
The biggest military build-up since World War II includes funds for buying and building missiles capable of striking adversaries and giving an offensive capability to the Self Defence Force Japan could eventually become the world’s third largest military spender after the US and China.
Politically, the right wing has been making strides with a constant call to re-do parts of the Constitution, including the sections pertaining to cap on defence spending. Hence, Prime Minister Kishida may not have any trouble on this score and domestic public opinion is seen to be on his side.
Turning point
The Prime Minister has argued forcefully that Japan and its people are at a “turning point in history” in the context of the various security challenges. The five year defence spending plan factors in the security and strategic challenges coming from China, the constant threat from North Korea and the recent Russian aggression in Ukraine. The potential of China going the military route against Taiwan has certainly not helped matters.
Beijing has been increasingly vocal on maritime issues and trying to flex muscles not just in the South China Sea but beyond. Japan that depends on free navigation for both its exports and imports finds Beijing’s attitude quite troublesome, a view that is shared by many others in the Indo-Pacific. North Korea has also become increasingly menacing with its test firing of short and long range missiles threatening the shores of Japan almost on a daily basis. That Pyongyang could be on the verge of yet another nuclear test is certainly not a sobering thought.
The problem for Prime Minister Kishida is not what Beijing, Pyongyang or Moscow says or the extent of vitriol that is going to come from these capitals. The real challenge is in finding money for this ambitious spending plan that does not seem to have gone down well even within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Kishida apparently is not in favour of burdening the common person with extra taxes at a time when inflation is also doing the rounds in Japan; but the idea of asking big corporations to shoulder the expense is running into some opposition as that would negate the idea of wage increases that the Prime Minister himself has championed.
The argument has also been that burdening companies with additional taxes would disincentivise R&D for future innovation. The little elbowroom for the Japanese Prime Minister could come by way of cutting other expenditures, raising tax on tobacco and drawing upon funds that have not been utilised. Political and economic specialists in Japan and elsewhere make the point that Kishida may not be in a comfortable economic zone but his political future is not in any great peril as elections are not due for sometime now.
The bold posturing of the Kishida government has naturally been welcomed by Washington which has been occasionally whipping up the notion of Japan getting a “free ride” on matters of security, a disingenuous position given the responsibilities the East Asian ally has shouldered including hosting a major base in Okinawa.
The writer has been a senior journalist in Washington DC for 14 years covering North America and the United Nations
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