India has just entered the global lithium map. Not long ago, New Delhi announced the discovery of lithium deposits of 5.9 million tonnes in the Reasi district of Jammu and Kashmir. Even before the initial euphoria could settle down, researchers at the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in India estimated reserves of another 14,000 tonnes of lithium in southern Karnataka. This puts India into the big league. The lithium triangle — comprising Argentina, Bolivia and Chile — controls over 63 per cent of the global deposits.
Predictably enough, the lithium discovery has triggered quite an excitement in India. The reasons are obvious. Our phones, laptops, electric cars and what not are powered by lithium. Indeed, lithium is quintessential for our battery-driven world. The demand for lithium has rapidly increased, and this will only intensify as hybrid and electric vehicles, energy storage systems and portable electronics become increasingly widespread.
Holistic transformation
Lithium discovery is a cause for excitement, no doubt. To be sure, a mere discovery of lithium deposits isn’t enough to bring about a holistic transformation in the energy security dynamics of the country.
The global lithium battery market today is estimated to be $50 billion, according to custommarketinsights.com. This is expected to reach $184 billion by 2030. Automotive industry, consumer electronics, grid energy, industrial energy and the like are the major users in pushing the demand higher all the time.
India is one of the largest importers of lithium batteries, according to Pv Magazine (Pv-magazine-india.com). India imports ₹11,000 crore worth of batteries mostly from China and also from Japan. China has built an unprecedented hold on lithium technology, and accounts for over 80 per cent of the battery market globally. It is extremely difficult to break into China. Even the US lags behind China by at least 20 years in the technological race.
Before celebrating the recent discoveries, let’s first understand the lithium technology value chain and the complexity of it. Lithium mining requires significant financial and technological investments.
From mining to processing and purification, it involves a long intensive process to arrive at battery grade lithium.
Today, nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) are widely used. The chemical composition to create batteries involves advanced as well as continuous developmental technology which India does not have at the moment. Even the US does not have. China has, however, developed a big lead, and surged ahead strongly by banning imports 20 years ago and through heavy investment in R&D. Chinese companies today dominate the battery market with over 80 per cent share globally. Ganfeng Lithium, Tycorn Energy and CATL are world leaders. CATL alone sells 35 per cent of world lithium batteries.
What can India do?
What are India’s options? To get a clue, let’s analyse the latest R&D investments in battery technology. Lithium ion research — which is widely spoken about today — is developing lithium sulphur batteries, graphene lithium ion technology, lithium silicon and the like.
Sony group of Japan, 3M, Nexicon, among others, are investing heavily in new lithium technology. The obvious Indian option is to do joint development with some of them. In fact, India should join the race beyond lithium into solid state batteries using sodium ion and condensed battery technology. This requires large investment and joint ventures with global corporations. A PLI (production-linked incentive) scheme for technology development would build and secure India’s future.
Quantum computing
Quantum computing is the best alternative for India to secure a long-term future on batteries. Quantum computing is a multi-disciplinary field comprising aspects of computer science, physics and mathematics that utilises quantum mechanics to solve complex problems faster than on classical computers.
The field of quantum computing includes hardware research and application development. Quantum computers have the potential to revolutionise the battery industry by enabling the rapid design and development of new battery technologies. Quantum computers can be used to simulate the behaviour of complex molecules and materials, which can help researchers to identify new battery materials with improved properties. For example, quantum computers could be used to simulate the behaviour of lithium-air batteries, which have the potential to store much more energy than current lithium-ion batteries. The number of qubits required for quantum computing applications in battery research depends on the specific application. However, it is generally believed that quantum computers with at least 50 qubits will be required for significant progress in this area.
Several institutions are already working on the development of quantum computers for battery research. These include, among others, IBM, Google, Microsoft, Rigetti Computing and IonQ. These institutions are working to develop quantum computers with the qubit count and performance required for battery research. As quantum computers continue to develop, they are expected to play an increasingly important role in the development of new battery technologies.
As things stand today, New Delhi will do well to spot the opportunities around the new battery technologies and foster an ecosystem that facilitates faster transition to a greener India.
The writer, a former Senior VP of TVS-E , is a data scientist and an expert on international affairs and public policy