The surprise call by the government for a short four-day Parliament session from September 18 underscores a much larger development. This is that until a few months ago there was a great deal of political certainty and a great deal of economic uncertainty. Today, it’s the other way around.
The political uncertainty has developed because the BJP is on the back foot today after losing in Karnataka and the Congress is on the front foot after winning there. What started with the first salvo in late January (with the Hindenburg revelations on the Adani group’s financial practices) has turned into an enormous barrage of social media salvos on the Prime Minister.
He is being lampooned mercilessly by the Opposition. His credibility is being nibbled away. So for the first time since 2014 the BJP leadership seems unsure and bewildered. Manipur, inflation and unemployment have unsettled it hugely.
So it’s looking for a silver bullet that might help it in the next three major elections — two semi-finals in Rajasthan and MP, and the final in the general election due next April. Right now it looks as if it will lose the two Assembly elections.
Simultaneously, the Opposition parties have also come together on their INDIA platform. This has created more political uncertainty because no one knows who its leader will be. All sorts of theories are being discussed.
And, regardless of who the leader will be, it’s also not clear how many seats the new formation can realistically win and whether it can cross the halfway number of 272 seats in Parliament. The BJP, meanwhile, seems resigned to losing its majority. But by what margin below 272 is also unclear.
Economic certainty
In contrast, compared to a few months back there is a great deal of economic certainty now. The most important aspect of this is that the Indian economy is growing nicely at something between 5.8 and 7 per cent. In between lies the la la land of economists and statisticians.
To that extent, when contrasted with the rest of the world, there is a great deal of certainty. True, there is the odd policy misstep like the new laptop and server import licensing announcement. But those are details that don’t alter the basic fact: the economy is doing well and India is a stable place to be in.
This is in sharp contrast to what the prognosis was a few months ago. The Hindenberg expose had unsettled the government badly. There was a sense of “Gosh, now what” in the government. All its economic institutions were in a flap. But despite the new revelations last week that anxiety is now a thing of the past.
Arguably, inflation and employment are serious issues. But they aren’t feeding into the economy and creating uncertainty. They are both impacting political uncertainty.
The question is how many people will vote against the BJP even if they like its “Hindus First” message. That’s why the government is acting to mitigate the risks that arise from both inflation and unemployment. Free food, subsidised cooking gas and transport fuel are all towards this.
But how successful it is in this endeavour will impact politics, not economics. That’s why there is political uncertainty even if the source of it is the economy.
2013 Vs 2023
September 2013 was the month when the BJP chose Narendra Modi to lead the 2014 election campaign. The UPA was on the back foot then both on the economy and in politics. Many ministers were privately preparing to ‘take rest’, as they told me.
I had asked one of the Congress ministers about Rahul Gandhi and his ability to lead. He threw up his hands and said in Hindi even God doesn’t know.
In May that year, a colleague from this newspaper, the redoubtable Rasheeda Bhagat, and I had met Modi in Gandhinagar. He was absolutely clear that it would be an economy and development campaign that would bring the BJP to power.
That’s not going to happen this year. The economy is in a place where the BJP can’t claim any benefits from it and the Opposition can’t deliver any blows. In fact, it’s not even trying.
So what rabbit will the BJP pull from its hat that can deliver it more than 272 seats? In 2019 Balakote was fortuitously handed to it by Pakistan. But that’s not going to happen again. Indeed if China pulls some stunt along the LAC, it could harm the BJP badly.
So what’s it going to be? What will unite the Hindu vote for the BJP? Perhaps one should pay attention to what Mohan Bhagwat said last Friday.