India once again decisively voted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to lead the country. I venture to add to the plethora of unsolicited suggestions on what the new government should address in the first 100 days.
The contours of the Indian economy indicate a slowdown. The inadequacy of job growth has assumed serious proportions. The demand contraction is discernible. The trade war between the US and China signals global uncertainties, slowdown and headwinds.
Modi 1.0 focussed on some singular reforms like GST, IBC, RERA, MPC, etc. Modi 2.0 has to prepare for total factor productivity — enhancing reforms like land, labour, etc — to take the Indian economy to the next orbit of double digit GDP growth. Hence, the entire agenda of the first 100 days should culminate into uplifting of the economy.
In India, the ministries related to manufacturing and services like banking, insurance, commerce, industry and even transport — road, rail et el — are considered as economic ministries. Even though agriculture contributes 15.7 per cent of GDP, over 60 per cent of the jobs and dependence of nearly 70 per cent of the country’s households, it is not treated as an economic ministry, which, justifiably it should, and receive similar attention.
The farm economy’s slowdown and rural distress are visible and can be ignored only at the cost of intensifying rural distress, contraction of demand further and deepening the slowdown.
The Prime Minister has replaced Radha Mohan Singh (believed to have been dropped for under-performance) with Narendra Singh Tomar. The new minister should roll up his sleeves with the same zeal as the Finance Minister to make a quick impact. The review of the Agriculture Ministry should be as frequent and diligent as that of Finance Ministry.
The construction industry, which has been in the doldrums for almost four years following demonetisation, GST and RERA, should be immediately revived. It is the second largest employer of India. Affordable housing should be given a push to help. Credit flow to the industry, including housing companies, should be facilitated. The construction industry directly impacts more than 150 industries and together with agriculture, it can make a significant impact on employment generation.
The focus on building physical infrastructure should be stepped up further. This will revive a number of sagging sectors and open up lakhs of employment opportunities. Attempts should be made to engage the private sector in the building of infrastructure, which in the last five years has been driven by the public sector alone.
India’s need of investments in infrastructure in the next five years is of over a trillion dollars. It is well-neigh impossible for the public sector alone to fund. The Finance Minister has her job cut out. The cold shoulders to entrepreneurs should be replaced with warmth. Till the confidence is gained and private capital starts flowing significantly, the public expenditure in asset creation should continue to be a driving force.
Structural deficit
It is time India transits from focussing on fiscal deficit to structural deficit. The structural deficit has the potential to provide countercyclical stability. Simultaneously, the Finance Minister should address the issue of resources mobilisation. GST clean-up and legislation of a simplified Direct Taxes Code, and disinvestment push should be part of the 100-day agenda. Nirmala Sitharaman’s first Budget must help revive the animal spirits of the economy.
Following the IL&FS meltdown, NBFCs and housing finance companies, in particular, are facing a severe liquidity crunch. Lending has slowed down significantly. The RBI has taken some steps and has promised more. However, the challenges facing the NBFC sector have to be addressed with sagacity.
The clean-up of the balance sheet of the public sector banks has to be addressed like there is no tomorrow. Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates and changed the stance to accommodative. The signalling is positive, but transmission has to be dealt with dexterity, and quickly.
Piyush Goyal should move with top speed to corner some gains from the global trade war and de-risk the pronounced actions of the US. The window will not be open forever. He has been an effective minister but now he has also to don the hat of an astute diplomat. Hardeep Puri, as MoS, should be a great facilitator.
The implementation of the 100-day agenda should determine the continuance of a minister. Late bloomers should vacate the leadership saddle for better performers. Anxious India has great faith and hope in Narendra Modi to deliver on aspirations. The first 100 days’ performance should signal a reassurance.
The writer is a former chairman of
SEBI and LIC
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