The answer is blowin’ in the wind

The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has shown that a fossil fuel-free future is imperative if the world wants to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The warning from the United Nations panel, however, has gone unheeded by politicians and policymakers as is clear from the meek outcome of the recently concluded climate talks in Lima.

But a new report on wind energy released this week is not so pessimistic and concludes boldly that a future free of fossil and nuclear energy is after all possible.

With a total of 337 GW power generation capacity in over 100 countries across widespread geographies, wind energy is now seeking to be full-fledged member of the mainstream electricity club.

In Europe alone, 100 GW of wind capacity was added between 2000 and 2013. In less than a decade, China has emerged as a leading player with over 91 GW of wind energy capacity.

India has achieved nearly 21 GW of cumulative installed capacity of wind power by the end of March 2014. Europe, India, China and the US together account for 93 per cent of the total wind power installed capacity.

Clearly, countries or regions with maximum import dependence on oil and gas are leading the shift from fossil to wind. This indicates that the shift to wind has more to do with reasons of energy security than perhaps climate change. While harnessing renewable sources of energy like wind and solar may appear to be simple compared to fossil fuel or nuclear projects, the reality is that assessing wind or solar potential of a particular region is highly challenging.

Unlike sunshine that is relatively uniform in a given region over a given period of time, winds are fickle, vary in space and time, change from place to place, and blow in fluctuating strengths over different timescales.

For any investor or project proponent, it is critical to assess how much electricity can be generated from wind, for how long and what may be the total quantum of such energy in a given period of time at any given location or region.

A large number of wind resource assessment studies have been carried out across the world, at times with varying projections. Bonn, Germany-based World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), therefore, decided to conduct a meta-analysis of these studies to arrive at total global potential for wind farms in the world.

The total wind potential of the world, as identified by these existing studies, is 95 terawatt (one terawatt equals one trillion watts). This means that wind energy alone would be more than sufficient to cover the world’s energy supply several times over.

Jami Hossain, an Indian expert who wrote the WWEA technical report, says that this is the first time a global estimate of wind power has been made taking into account available data, studies and scientific papers.

While different methods and information sources have been used in individual studies to assess order and magnitude of wind potential in different parts of the world, these studies seem to corroborate each other.

The report notes that the potential of near surface winds being measured and harnessed for power generation is just the tip of the iceberg.

Most wind turbines currently go up to 100 meters above the ground. As we go up in the atmosphere wind speeds increase dramatically after 2,000 m above ground till 10,000 m.

It indicates that winds in high altitudes can meet electricity requirements in a sustained and reliable manner given viable technologies.

The realisable offshore and onshore potential for wind energy with the currently available technologies is sufficient to meet electricity requirements of the entire world. “It is reasonable to conclude that looking at global electricity requirements and even growth in electricity over the next few decades, it is indeed possible to meet all electricity requirements with technologies and options that are a combination of wind, solar, hydro and biomass and storage technologies and devices. Technically, it is possible to phase out nuclear and fossil fuel based generating stations,” the study has concluded.

The emerging picture painted by the report is certainly rosy, but realising this potential is not going to be easy. Many areas of the world with vast wind energy potential are not located close to centres of consumption.

If wind power has to emerge as a viable contender in the energy-mix of any country then it will have to move beyond the model of distributed generation and take to large scale generation in high potential areas and transmission of electricity over long distances.

This will require trans-regional or even trans-national transmission links. For instance, high potential areas in Sri Lanka are in Jaffna and Northern parts of the island, from where electricity can be supplied to India.

Similarly, there are high potential regions in Afghanistan which can be harnessed to serve neighbouring countries. In addition to technical, financial and geopolitical hurdles, wind energy also faces certain green issues.

Many high-potential locations with wind energy potential are deep inside dense forests and other such ecologically fragile areas.

Concerns relating to likely ecological damage due to installation of wind turbines and any possible long-term impacts on local environment will have to be fully assessed.

Given green concerns about coal-fired plants and safety issues around nuclear, one can safely assume that wind power will be relatively benign on nature even after taking into account all such concerns.

India should pursue this option in right earnest, along with other renewable sources such as solar.

The writer is a New Delhi-based science journalist and author