What do you do when hills come crumbling down and landscapes — urban and rural — get flooded? One cannot stop but wonder: what did we do to deserve this? As much as it is about nature, it is more about the abuse by us, the living. Heavy construction in an ecologically fragile Western Ghats or Himalayan zones or encroachment of storm-water drainages in cities by the rich and poor alike. A mine, a hydel project, a tunnel, a highway or bypass, and a city built where it should not be. The centrality of human interference in accelerating and accentuating catastrophes is reiterated. One can blame climate change, but again, it is anthropogenic.
Going forward, loss and damages from such man-made disasters are a reality that States and citizens must live with. How do we better protect and build resilience against these disasters?
Gray Rhino
Foremost, we must acknowledge the repetitious nature of the events. Given the frequency of extreme events, one would no longer call them rare or occasional. Along with the damage to property and life, these high-frequency, high-impact disasters are more of what Najeb Taleb categorises as Gray Rhinos than Black Swans — rare and high-impact events. Some even classify the Covid-19 pandemic as Gray Rhino, as the signs were always there in SARS and MERS.
Therefore, it is necessary to appreciate that these disasters are more of a norm than aberration. In the new normal of living with recurring disasters, the new goal is consequence minimisation.
Listen to elders
In the village of Aneyoshi, Japan, close to Fukushima, there are stone inscriptions with Tsunami warnings. “High dwellings are peace and harmony of our descendants. Remember the calamity of the great Tsunamis. Do not build homes below this point.”
There are traditional practices all over the Indian countryside underlying similar ecological wisdom. The traditional dwellings, Bhungas in Kutch, withstood the 2001 earthquake. Old villages in Garhwal are still surviving amidst repeated exposure to multiple calamities, underscoring the traditional knowledge in constructing multi-disaster-resistant homes and human settlements. Acknowledging the experiential wisdom, and making it a common parlance are good ways to reinforce the demands of the ecosystem conditions that are to be honoured by the residents.
The Moken tribals of Thailand islands knew of the lesson shared across generations — when the earth moves, the ocean will also move. When the oceans recede fast, run to the hills. The traditional early warning system ensured that the tribe survived the 2004 Tsunami of the Indian Ocean.
Early warning systems and forecasting are of utmost significance in reducing damages from calamities. Over the years, our cyclone forecasting has improved tremendously, which has minimised the loss of life. Continuous investments and improvement in capabilities for forecasting extreme weather events where disasters may happen, along with timely communication, would be key to minimising losses.
All said and done, the margin of error is zero. Minor errors can translate into catastrophes for large areas and the populace. Technology-enabled innovative large-area monitoring systems can help raise red flags. Satellite surveys and digital architecture being used to classify areas at risk can also be leveraged for devising supervision protocols. And strict disincentives as deterrents to ensure adherence to the norms.
What’s done cannot be undone. The development paradigm that undermined nature and human nature co-existence is increasingly showing its devastating effects. The process may not be irreversible, and it will take generations to get back to harmonious levels. Till then, living and adapting to the changed equations is the only way out. We can be wiser from hindsight.
The writer is Co-founder and Chief Knowledge Officer of Sambodhi Research & Communications, a social impact advisory