What is common between the Oktoberfest and the Bundestag (parliament) elections? Meticulous planning and execution.

On September 21, the mayor of Munich declares open the biggest party in the world — the Oktoberfest. There will be great merriment as around 9 million liter steins , or mugs, of beer are consumed and eager anticipation of the outcome of the 2013 Bundestag election.

The state of Bavaria, of which Munich is the capital, is seen as a barometer for the way the rest of the country will choose and happily, its minister-president, Horst Seehofer, the son of a lorry driver, has reclaimed an absolute majority for the Christian Social Union (CSU).

According to opinion polls, this gives Chancellor Angela Merkel a 90 per cent chance of re-election on September 22.

But the Bavarian ballot also portends a disquieting message for Merkel as the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), with whom she governs Germany in a centre-right coalition, slumped to just 3 per cent, below the 5 per cent level needed for assembly seats.

About 61.8 million Germans living in the Federal Republic of Germany will be entitled to vote in the elections: about 51 per cent of these are women and about 3 million, young, first-time voters. A total of 4,451 candidates, including 1,149 women (25.8 per cent), representing 34 parties are in the fray.

German elections are always a one-day, Sunday affair. The returning officer will announce the midway result by 2 p.m. in the afternoon and the official provisional election result on the night of September 22.

Probable Scenario

Merkel, whose Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is unlikely to get an unconditional majority at the national level, would prefer to continue her coalition with the FDP rather than have to embrace the next most-likely scenario — a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. So as of now, no shockers are expected. A centre-right alliance between the CDU/CSU and the FDP would ensure a third four-year term for Merkel.

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) leaders have kept their options open for an alliance with the left or a grand coalition with the CDU/CSU. Supported only by the Greens, the SPD will not have enough votes to ensure the Chancellor’s post for their candidate, Peer Steinbrück.

Merkel’s popularity in Germany continues to rise, while Steinbrück’s is very low. Germany has grown its economy under Merkel while many other European economies faltered. Known among her supporters as the “Iron Chancellor”, Merkel gives investors hope for political stability in Germany.

The EU Question

The crucial question in the German election is the European one: Amid the financial meltdown, German taxpayers’ money has been used to bail out struggling “Club Med” countries. So, while Merkel’s popularity is at an all-time high, so is the discontent with the bailout programmes.

Euro-sceptic parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AFD) may get less than the 5 per cent necessary to make it into the Bundestag. However, the Euro-sceptic wing within the governing coalition is strong and expected to breed all around.

The most likely scenario involves Angela Merkel as Chancellor, either as head of the current coalition, or of a grand coalition with the SPD. She is admired in Germany, popular with the markets, and I would be surprised if she were not re-elected.

Even with a contrary result, German politics will not change much. The principal opposition, the SPD, has always has supported the ruling government on all the European motions in what can be termed as a no-nonsense, consensus-building political culture.

(The author is former Europe Director, CII, and lives in Cologne, Germany.)

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