It is the time of an election cycle when numbers would seem to be going out of style. For every time a candidate is seen to be marginally ahead, the opposition brings back the advantage on specific issues.

A post debate poll from Quinnipiac University shows Vice-President Kamala Harris with a slight advantage over former President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, but with third party candidates included; but no clear winner in Wisconsin. A latest AP-NORC survey is showing that voters are viewing Harris slightly more favourably than they did in July, after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The second assassination attempt on Trump in his golf course has had its unexpected moments. The calls of concern from President Biden and Democratic contender Harris appears to have calmed the environment with the former President characterizing the brief conversations “very nice”.

But that has not stopped the Trump-Vance team from laying the blame for the violence on Harris and Democrats for saying that the former President is a “threat to democracy”. And the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, had to throw in his outrageous two cents worth — something to the effect as to why Biden and Harris have not been targeted, a message that was quickly removed from social media.

The latest Quinnipiac survey only reinforced what other polls have said in the recent past: that Trump fares better on economy and immigration; but Harris is trusted on abortion.

Battleground states

The seven battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — are critical for the candidates as the margins of win and loss have been quite small. In fact this time around Pennsylvania with 19 electoral college votes is seen to be “THE” state to win in the road to the White House. In 2020 President Joe Biden won here by 1.2 percentage points.

The needle may be moving in favour of Harris at a slow pace, at the national and swing states with the two campaigns looking at bonus pickups along the way — Harris looking at North Carolina and even Iowa; and Trump hoping for Arizona and Nevada. That being the case, Republicans and Democrats are looking to lock in or grab that sliver of votes and endorsements that come their way.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters may have formally decided to sit out the 2024 elections but it is believed a majority of its members are with Trump. The Teamsters’ National Black Caucus is backing Harris.

Cheap barbs

And at a time when Trump’s standing with women leaves much to be desired, his well wishers are dumbfounded to see what is coming out from so-called supporters and surrogates. Just when Senator Vance’s “childless cat ladies” remarks seem to be fading away, it took the Republican Governor of Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, to drop another bomb: that women without biological children will be less humane, drawing a round of disgust from women, step mothers and seen as a sign of political desperation. “… my kids keep me humble. Unfortunately Kamala Harris doesn’t have anything keeping her humble”, Sanders said.

In 1992, James Carville, the political strategist for Bill Clinton coined the famous phrase “It’s the Economy, Stupid”. And in 2024 the Harris campaign is realizing that the slogan pegged to the economy has not changed.

Whether it is at the pumps or grocery stores, prices are said to have fallen; so have mortgage rates. And it is pointed out that household incomes have risen faster than prices for the first time since the pandemic; and inflation is down to “normal” levels.

So how does Trump fare better than Harris on the economy? Part of the answer should be in the messenger still finding better ways to fine-tune the message but not having the luxury of time on her hands.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations