The road to Doklam remains rocky

The ongoing duel between India and China is unlikely to peter out very soon, although both sides may unobtrusively start reducing their their troops on the border as the 19th national congress of the Communist Party of China draws near. It is likely to grant another five-year term to President Xi Jinping; besides, China will get busy tackling internal tensions that have risen with the re-allocation of power amongst politburo members.

The national congress , which takes place every five years to assess the performance of the government, is likely to be held in October-November.

Five out of the seven members of the politburo’s standing committee, which is the highest decision-making body in China, will be shown the door while new appointments will be made. There is pressure on the party to show that it is performing: a substantial aspect of it is that it is able to gnaw territories away from its vulnerable neighbours. This is not the first time in the history of India-China relations that the Indian government is in a diplomatic quagmire. But this is definitely the first time India has stood up to China’s aggressive stance on Doklam, a narrow plateau lying at the junction of Bhutan, China and India.

If China gets to build the road in Doklam , it will acquire a strategic lookout post over India’s North-East, including the vulnerable 21-km ‘Chicken’s Neck’ or Siliguri-Sikkim corridor. This is the only region where China has a strategic disadvantage along the entire 4,056 km border it shares with India. Which is why India wants China to come to the negotiating table.

While the Chinese have resorted to being provocative, issuing statements from the foreign ministry and through its media, India has only rarely made statements even as its troops pitched in tents refuse to back off.

According to unsubstantiated reports, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has asked the Chinese to construct the road 250 metres away from where it is planning to do so now; they have agreed to make it 100 metres. But only time will tell if this will happen, or if the Chinese will find a face-saving tactic and there will be a “quiet withdrawal” by both sides as the internal chaos in China settles.

India’s slowly and steadily tilting foreign policy has been antagonising China. It is disconcerted by India’s changing stance on the South China Sea issue. During the recent Malabar naval exercise — the annual trilateral exercise involving India, the US and Japan — India received assurances from Washington and Tokyo that Japan and the US would come to India’s help in the event of an international crisis. China is also keeping an eye on the upcoming visit of Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to India; it apprehends a new era of strategic alliance between India and Japan that may induce India to interfere in the South China Sea issue. China has not been able to digest the fact that India is slowly shedding its non-aligned stance; besides, the US has officially labelled India its “major defence partner”.

On the other hand, India is unhappy about the growing closeness between China and Pakistan, and Beijing’s bewilderment over New Delhi’s concerns about rising cross-border terrorism. China has been blocking India’s demand to designate Jaish-e-Mohammed chief and Pathankot terror attack mastermind Masood Azhar a global terrorist at the UN. China also continues to block India’s path towards the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is glaring example of China’s long-term interest in Pakistan and its hold in PoK.

According to the former NSA and foreign secretary, Shivshankar Menon, much of the talk on the boundary question has already been settled with China, especially that concerning the tri-junction area, and the framework is ready. What is needed now is political will.

But for that political will to build up it is important leaders on both sides talk to each other. Unfortunately there has not been regular dialogue between the Special Representatives (SRs) of the two countries. The last round took place in 2016; since then India-China ties have plummeted rapidly. Chances of an SR dialogue taking place are clearly bleak.