The UK managed to hold our attention over the last few weeks as they worked through their national leadership transitions. We saw the long and short of it — spectacle of a Queen who held the position as head of state for 70 years and a commoner who was head of government for just 45 days! We covered several eras — the traditions require the head of state to wear a crown made of jewels, ceremonial clothing that you can only find in museums and ride in carriages drawn by horses, at the same time when the media is comparing the tenure of the head of government to the life of a lettuce.

But entertainment apart, several features of these leadership transitions make them noteworthy. The UK has had three prime ministers at a time when a Covid-and-inflation impacted volatile global economy demanded a very steady hand at the steering wheel. Britain in particular has the additional shock of dealing with the consequences of having exited the European Union without a clear plan of how it is going to deal with an economy that has been trailing its peers.

The UK’s per capita gross domestic product, adjusted for purchasing power, is now below the average of major economies. Not surprisingly, the previous prime minister, Liz Truss, was sent packing not by party intrigue but by global financial markets which did not see logic or consistency in the major economic decisions of the government. She was trying to cut taxes without a plan for how the loss of revenue would be funded at a time of roaring inflation that the government’s own central bank was fighting through high rates. One lesson here for any major country is that you cannot afford to put a leader in place who doesn’t understand global markets.

The UK’s ruling Conservative Party has the majority seats in parliament so the party leader gets to be head of government. Recent polls show the popularity of this party has fallen to 23 per cent. With general elections scheduled for 2024, members of parliament from this party know that an immediate election carries a high probability of their losing their seats. The only way to keep their party in power and resurrect some lost popularity is to get behind someone who can deliver the stability that the economy needs, whether they like the individual or not.

So they were prepared to put themselves in the uncomfortable position of supporting Rishi Sunak, grandson of immigrants, now leading a party that fought to exit the EU because they wanted, among other things, less immigration.

Chinese model

Contrast the UK’s desperation to demonstrate logic and stability to global financial markets with that of China, where the existing leader, Xi Jinping, last week secured an unprecedented third five-year term. The Chinese model with intrigue behind the scenes, and choreographed performance before the cameras is meant to demonstrate control. Opacity of leadership and decisions make it difficult to judge the abilities of the people beyond their political acumen.

. Xi is said to have gradually eased out all rivals over the years in order to remain in power. China wants to be admired as a country to be emulated in the global landscape. Its raging economic growth was to ensure that happening by 2030 when think tanks assured us that its economy would be larger than that of the US. Now, those analysts are wondering, maybe, 2060?

What happened in between, is that apart from demographic changes, the desire of Xi for a dominant China has resulted in greater state control of business and the economy leading to slowing productivity, created private sector diffidence, and triggered restrictive policies among major trading partners that are slowly strangling the dynamism of the Chinese growth engine, especially the high-tech sector.

The musical chair resemblance of the British Cabinet formation process has a saving grace — inept leaders are sidelined soon enough. That is the strength of that system. Pity the countries of the world struggling with an autocratic system supporting a leader who refuses to move on.

The writer is an emeritus professor at Suffolk University, Boston

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