First there was the uproar over Matt Gaetz for Attorney General; then came Pete Hegseth for Defence Secretary and now Kashyap (Kash) Patel for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). Gaetz fell by the wayside on his own withdrawal which could not have happened without the President-elect’s concurrence. Donald Trump, the incoming 47th President of the United States, has a reason for every one of his controversial picks going beyond personal loyalty.

And that has to do with the extent to which he can make the Senate bend. This has especially to do with Republicans in the Chamber.

To a large extent Trump’s message on nominations is directed at his own party members with consequences of facing a heated 2026 primary season. To a lesser extent the message could also be to Democrats that opponents could be propped up to give them sleepless nights.

Patel’s nomination

If Washington seems bent out of shape again it has to do with Trump’s decision to nominate the 44-year-old Patel to head the top law enforcement office, an agency that has been harshly rebuked by the nominee in the past even going to the extent of saying that all of its employees would be re-located out of Washington to take down criminals. Patel has been referred to as by far the “most dangerous” pick of the incoming President.

The current FBI chief, Christopher Wray, whose 10-year tenure ends in 2027 would have to resign or be fired and Patel will have to go through the confirmation process.

“Kash Patel must prove to Congress he will reform and restore public trust in FBI” said veteran Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa.

Powerful Senators of both parties would at times warn Presidents that a nomination of a particular Cabinet pick could be DOA (Dead On Arrival), indicating to move on and pick another less contentious person. In the present circumstance either Republican Senators have not flagged the DOA sign publicly or Trump has privately signalled that he could not care less. In fact, he may want such a showdown on the floor going down to the ayes and nays.

Many lawmakers are institutionalists and will be willing to play ball with the White House only to a certain extent. With four seats down in the Senate after the 2024 election, Democrats will have to lean on moderate Republicans.

There are not many in the likes of Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska or Susan Collins of Maine; and Senator Mitt Romney, who has always been a thorn on the side of Trump, ends his term in January 2025.

To an extent the incoming President will not wilt under pressure, but he quite understands that he needs to hold on to the majority in the Senate. And the first challenge will come on November 3, 2026, at the mid-term elections when along with all of the House of Representatives, 33 out of the 100 Senate seats will be contested, along with a special election in Ohio for the remaining two years of Vice President JD Vance and in Florida should Marco Rubio be confirmed as Secretary of State.

Senate seats

The Grand Old Party will be defending about two-thirds of the Senate seats and that the party sitting in the White House usually comes short in an off year election.

But Democrats have a long way to go in that they have to hold on to their own, especially in Georgia and Michigan, before setting their sights on North Carolina, Iowa and Texas. Republicans and Trump may be elated over their four seat majority in the Senate but the task in 2026 is a little different.

Trump needs to hold on to his majorities on Capitol Hill for his legislative and judicial agendas to materialise.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations

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