Trump tweets, Pakistan defies

New Year’s Day 2018 was very different from previous new years. Most newspapers and television stations normally confine themselves to stories of traffic jams, celebrations and revelry. But this time they focussed attention on yet another news-breaking tweet by President Donald Trump on his first New Year’s Day in office. Describing his predecessors as having “foolishly” given Pakistan $33 billion in aid, Trump accused Pakistan of “lies and deceit” by giving “safe haven” to “terrorists” from Afghanistan, while regarding “American leaders as fools”.

This was not Trump’s first fusillade against Pakistan. Lashing out at Pakistan on August 22 in a policy speech on Afghanistan, Trump said: “Pakistan has also sheltered the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars. At the same time, they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting.”

Pakistan predictably responded to Trump’s tirade with cries of injured innocence, claiming it had sacrificed lives to fight terrorism. It conveniently ignored how it had provided safe haven in Abbottabad to Osama bin Laden for nearly a decade and continued to provide safe haven on its soil to the Haqqani Network and top Taliban leaders and cadres.

The reality is that nobody in the world believes these protestations of innocence. But few, if any, criticise Pakistan openly. Pakistan evidently believes that this was yet another effort by Trump to resort to empty rhetoric, akin to his stance against North Korea. Foreign Minister Khwaja Asif has described Trump’s comments as being of “no importance now”, adding that only Afghanistan’s neighbours (Pakistan and China) can find a solution for regional peace and security. China has voiced full support for Pakistan.

When North Korea shocked the world by exploding a thermonuclear bomb on September 3, 2017, Trump described the action as “very hostile” and “dangerous to the US”. Barely a month earlier he had warned North Korea of “fire and fury” if it continued its provocative actions, while he described the policies of South Korea’s new president, seeking reconciliation with North Korea, as “appeasement”.

Although US diplomacy has led to tightening global economic sanctions on North Korea, China and Russia are clearly put off by Trump’s shrill rhetoric, including allegations of violation of UN sanctions on export of petroleum products to North Korea. It has also led to South Korea reaching out to North Korea for reconciliation and North Korea reciprocating by accepting a South Korean invitation to participate in the Winter Olympics at Seoul.

Thus, even as Trump remains hostile to Pyongyang, Seoul is building bridges. Meanwhile North Korea’s young dictator Kim Jong Un proclaims that he is developing more missiles and thermonuclear weapons, while keeping their trigger in his office!

Pakistan’s military has also reacted in a similar manner to Trump’s actions, including the US decision to withhold payment of coalition support funds that the US makes for facilities Pakistan provides to transport American military equipment to and from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s air force chief has warned that American drones operating against the Taliban and Haqqani Network inside Pakistani air space would be shot down. Pakistan has also hinted that the US would be unable to arm and equip its military in Afghanistan, as its only viable lines of communication to Afghanistan are through Pakistani territory and air space.

What promptsthis bluster? The primary cause is the belief that China will not only bail out Pakistan financially, but also provide a veto in the UN resolutions on terrorism, which castigate it. There also appears to be confidence that the US will not be able to find viable alternate routes for military supplies for its forces in Afghanistan, believing that Russia will seek to prevent any American effort to route military supplies through Uzbekistan.

When the Carter administration offered a relatively modest aid package to assist Pakistan after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, President Zia ul Haq contemptuously rejected the offer, describing it as “peanuts”. Pakistan, however, soon became a US ally in Afghanistan after President Reagan offered a more attractive aid package, including frontline F16 jet fighters.

The reality is that the 9/11 terrorist attacks were planned and executed from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan by Osama bin Laden, who lived comfortably thereafter in Abbottabad. Pakistani support for the Taliban, which continues even today, triggered American and global military intervention in Afghanistan. A reluctant Pakistan had no option but to be seen to be supporting this American effort.

It also needs to be borne in mind that despite Pakistan’s illusions about being bailed out exclusively by China, it still depends heavily on western bilateral aid and aid from western-led institutions such as the World Bank, IMF and ADB, where Japan is the key player. Given Pakistan’s precarious foreign exchange problems, the US will have to use its leverage with its European allies and Japan to ensure that Pakistan is squeezed to compel it to see reason. Pakistan is already under pressure to curb terror funding through the International Financial Action Task Force.

The US today has huge leverage in relations with Saudi Arabia, given its military and diplomatic backing of Saudi Arabia and its allies. Pakistan, in turn, is heavily dependent on Saudi benevolence, because of large remittances from Pakistani workers and oil supplies at concessional terms.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia wields immense influence ideologically and politically in Pakistan. Politicians like Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who recently visited Saudi Arabia for talks with the Crown Prince and members of his PML (N) party, not to speak of Islamic parties like the Jamat-e-Islami (JI) and the Jamat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) depend on funds and support from Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen if and how the US uses the support of Saudi Arabia and its partners to shape Pakistani behaviour.

Pakistan is heading for Parliamentary elections in June this year and Saudi ideological and financial support play an influential role in Pakistani politics. We should remember that Imran Khan, also known as ‘Taliban Khan’, would be the beneficiary of military support in these elections. India cannot be a disinterested party to whatever transpires in Pakistan in the coming months.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan