The Farnborough Air Show completed 70 years of its existence this year, but this interesting titbit was lost amidst the excitement of the commercial orders contest between Airbus and Boeing.

As it turned out, Boeing’s tally decisively exceeded that of Airbus; Airbus bagged 431 aircraft sales orders while Boeing’s tally totalled 531 (and if some previously unidentified orders were to be included, the total was 673, according to Boeing). The major proportion of the rivalry, understandably, was in the single aisle narrow body segment which has proved to be the most lucrative globally.

According to the customary projection made by Boeing during the Air Show, for the next two decades, the need for single aisle narrow-body aircraft, with low cost carriers (LCCs) accounting for the lion’s share, would be 31,360. In addition, Boeing sees the need for 8,070 wide-body passenger airliners and 980 wide-body freighters. On a similar note, Airbus predicted at the Air Show that 48,000 new aircraft would be delivered by 2037 to airlines.

The entire Indian civil aviation airliners tote up to just 584 — a number that pales in comparison to the sales figures at Farnborough (which are almost double this number).

Trying hard to convince

However, the media, Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) and a bevy of assorted aviation consulting entities never tire of trying to convince us that Indian civil aviation is growing at a rapid pace and will be the third largest global aviation market within the next decade or less.

That refrain has now become so oft-repeated that everybody believes it — even in the face of some glaring incongruencies. To elaborate, even if Indian airlines were to continue on their rapid pace of aircraft acquisition of single aisle narrow bodies, they would soon be faced with constraints as far as matching airport infrastructure growth is concerned.

The metros are already distended to bursting points and are in the process of hiking peak time fees and charges to encourage red eye flight patterns, while the growth of Tier 2/ Tier 3 airports is agonisingly slow and inadequate.

In a recent interview with a TV channel, AAI Chairman Guruprasad Mohapatra claimed that the capacity at AAI’s 129 airports has not yet been breached but admitted that it will begin falling short in 2019 when the total capacity of AAI-managed airports is expected to increase to 167.35 million passengers but the demand would be 181.83 by then, if the current rate of passenger growth continues.

Considering that 2019 is just a year ahead, the “third largest aviation market” vision appears to be a pipe dream. It is worth noting that these figures are for AAI airports only; the total passenger capacity of all operational airports is almost double this figure.

So, is the growth sustainable? Or will it plateau out after next year, as indicated by AAI’s Chairman? Perhaps it is a good idea to keep the optimism alive in the hope that regional and remote airport connectivity will see a transfiguration that permits consummation of the vision that Indian civil aviation cherishes about its future. As of now, the chances of its continuing to grow at the current rates beyond next year appear grim and tenuous.

The writer is a retired Group Captain.

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