The continuing nightmare in Japan is only a grim reminder of the danger that lurks in coastal regions of the world –be it tsunamis, super-cyclones, storm surges and erosion.

What, however, is left out in the list of catastrophes is the creeping rise in sea level.

The slow, long-term risk of sea level rise associated with climate change is typically outside the radar of policy-makers.

But this is a hazard that is almost sure to occur, given the scientific certainty of global temperatures rising by two to three degrees centigrade in this century. If the world is unlikely to respond to the question of lives at risk, an awareness of the damage in money terms may spur some action.

COLOSSAL DAMAGE

According to rough estimates, a one-metre rise in sea level as a result of climate change will put at risk Rs 20 lakh crore - Rs 340 lakh crore along the coast of India.

These are extrapolations from a detailed study conducted for Tamil Nadu. The study makes its estimates on the basis of a back-of-the-envelope calculation that considers GDP, coastal investment, and the length of the coastline for each coastal State.

 The Tamil Nadu study was conducted by the Centre for Development Finance, a research group in the Institute for Financial Management and Research, together with IIT-Madras. It estimates that the replacement cost of major infrastructure such as ports, highways and power plants, at risk from a one-meter sea level rise, is between Rs 47,418 crore and Rs 53,554 crore (in 2010 terms).

The present value of wetlands, estimated as forgone ecosystem services through 2050, is between Rs 3,583 crore and Rs 14,608 crore. By far the largest impact will be on land at risk, whose market value is estimated to be between Rs 3,17,661 crore and Rs 61,15,471 crore.

These numbers are significant given that the state's annual Gross Domestic Product is about Rs 2,75,000 crore.

While a one-metre rise in mean sea level would permanently inundate about 1,100 sq. km. of Tamil Nadu, the area at risk turns out to be about six times as much as a result of associated threats from intense storms and high storm surges. Coastal erosion, increased flooding and salt-water intrusion will also accompany sea level rise and these were not estimated in the report. Further, since private investments such as resorts, and shrimp farms were not included, the report provides only a conservative estimate.

CITIES IN TROUBLE

 Two thirds of the top 20 wealthy cities, based on the recent Wealth Report by Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank, lie on the coast. New York, London and Shanghai head the list with Mumbai being the only city from South Asia. Attracting millions of dollars in investments, these cities have become centres for wealth creation and entrepreneurship.

Even though civilisations have settled and flourished along the banks of major deltas and along the ocean for millennia, today's global cities face an imminent risk, the impact of which is being underestimated by many investors, financiers and governments.

The Indian government recently proposed major investments along the country's 6,100 km. coastline. Private investment, such as in the proposed Navi Mumbai airport, hurtles forward heedless of the looming risks.

 The risk of sea level rise as a result of climate change is often perceived as a danger somewhere out there in the future, a low probability event with an unknown level of impact.

The fact is that the world is warming and sea levels will rise even if we are fortuitously able to restrict warming to 2 or 3 degree Celsius.

Geological data indicate that in the Plio-Pleistocene, when the world was warmer by 2 to 3 degrees, sea levels were about 30 to 35 metres higher than they are today. How rapidly sea levels will rise this time around is anybody's guess, but all our coastal development planning needs to prepare for a few metres of rise and this includes coastal investments, infrastructure, communities and ecosystems.

 

Advance planning

The impact of sea level rise on lives and livelihoods will be immense.

Given the fact that we have advance notice of its effects, contrary to the hazards from a tsunami or an earthquake, we can prepare for it.

We need a comprehensive assessment of coastal vulnerability and will then have to integrate climate change considerations into coastal planning and development. People may be forced to move out of the most vulnerable areas and this will have to be done well in advance of intense storms and high surges.

Since wetlands are known to provide significant protection from storms, we will need to find ways to protect them, establish coastal defences for communities, and reengineer structures that cannot be moved.

We will need to avoid situations of moral hazard, so that government does not bail out new investors and speculators along the coast. Once areas of high risk are delineated, no public funds in the form of insurance, subsidies, or tax holidays should be provided to investors in these parts of the coast.

 INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR

Investors and financiers will need to identify zones of vulnerability and delineate areas of high financial risk. Such information, made available to all stakeholders, must also be part of their decision-making process on location of infrastructure, the types of investment made, the design of the structures and their insurance. We will need to steer clear of speculative investment along the coast in areas that are especially at risk from sea level rise and accompanying coastal changes.

 With three mega-cities along our coast and massive investments being proposed all along it, we have an especially urgent task at hand.

Instead, we still have coastal officials who do not believe in climate change, investors who are building haphazardly with little enforcement of the meagre coastal regulation laws, and communities that are left to fend for themselves.

It is important that our societies pay heed to this issue, if not for own sake, at least for the lives of our children and grandchildren.

(Ms S. Byravan is with the Centre for Development Finance, IFMR, and Mr S.C. Rajan is with IITMadras)

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