All the announcements related to Indian Railways (IR) in the Finance Minister’s Budget speech were over in a minute, covering IR’s role in GatiShakti, 100 Cargo Terminals for multimodal logistics facilities, logistics services for small farmers and enterprises, integration of Postal and Railways networks, ‘One Station-One Product’ concept and 2,000 km of Kavach, the indigenous technology for safety.

But what evoked excitement was that 400 new-generation Vande Bharat trains would be built in the next three years. The immediate reaction in the media was that, while it was a vindication of the team which built the prototypes, the announcement had overreached to an impossibility.

The question many ask is: can this many number of trains be built in three years? Since the announcement in the Budget speech shows the intent of the government and the question should be how, and not whether, this can be achieved.

ICF’s wherewithal

Let us check out a formula for realising this dream-like announcement. Integral Coach Factory, Chennai is in the process of building, or ordering the equipment, for 102 trains. Assuming that this order can be enhanced by 30 per cent as per IR’s procurement regime, ICF can secure orders of equipment for 132 trains. The current version of the train is good to replace Shatabdi type trains but there is no scope to deploy 132 such trains yet.

Replacement of Rajdhani type trains, including some faster overnight trains, by a sleeper version of Vande Bharat is, therefore, inevitable. The sleeper version, if designed in time, will take around six months to get into the manufacturing stage and so a tested prototype can be put in service by early 2023, followed by start of series manufacture later that year. All these trains will save big on travel time while earning huge revenue.

Opinions differ on how much time it would take to build these. All these, barring a few, should be series-built in ICF alone after the go ahead is obtained in September 2022. Proliferation of manufacture at this nascent stage of the project in other factories, which have practically no experience of manufacture of 3-phase self-propelled trains, may cause deterioration in quality. At a feasible rate of 40 per year at ICF and the balance 12 at the two other factories, all these trains can be put on line by fiscal 2025-26.

That leaves a gap of 270 odd trains. These trains can be divided in two parts, one to be built in IR factories on the lines of the Train 20 project, a project which is lying moribund since 2018. The other should be deployed by reviving the private trains project kept in limbo since July 2021.

What is Train 20? Train 20 was envisaged as an upgraded train set design, incorporating aluminium body, which reduces the weight of the train and makes it more energy-efficient. These trains should be so designed to run at the 160-200 km/h speed range and therefore future-ready for the track being upgraded on select routes. Incorporation of tilting mechanism may be considered to improve the speed on curves and shorter travel time.

The technology for aluminium body and tilting cannot be developed in the country in an early time frame so IR will have to engage an established manufacturer from abroad. The mode of contracting, however, should make a departure from what IR has been doing in Transfer of Technology projects; these contracts have not served their purpose fully as any technology is not amenable to an empowering level of transfer as the creator may part with know-how but never the know-why.

The proposed contract should call for design as well as manufacture in association with ICF engineers in hands-on mode. In addition, space should be provided within ICF to build the trains, barring the prototypes, employing IR staff supervised by contractors’ experts.

This will empower IR to develop future versions of the trains on their own. It is feasible to see the prototypes of such trains sometime in fiscal 2025-26 and after that a large number can be deployed in the next couple of years.

Reviving private trains

For balance deployment of Vande Bharat clones, the project for private trains should be revived post haste. The project did not elicit interest from the prospective bidders as IR’s babudom cussedly failed to address the concerns of the bidders in respect of an independent regulator, freedom to choose train timings, a comforting exit clause and one-sided revenue share regime. The contract can be refloated with a win-win attitude. This will help utilise the spare capacity of train manufacture in private sector of the country apart from affording world-class rail travel.

Another issue here is Rapid Rail Transit (RRT) projects being mooted on the lines of the under-construction Delhi-Meerut RRT. While the Railway Ministry promotes Vande Bharat trains as a symbol of aspirational India, the eligibility criteria of the Ministry of Urban Development debars IR’s factories, negating India’s own technological capability of designing and manufacturing these trains. RRTs should be made a part of this thrust for Vande Bharat trains.

What about financing of and revenue from such trains? The financial health of IR is not good, its operating ratio is more than 100, Capex by the government, and, interest burden are mounting. But while revenues show a good jump this year, sustained improvement is a must to reach anywhere near self-sustenance.

While the government firmly believes that investment in rail sector would drive the growth of the economy, as reflected in the record ₹2.45 lakh crore investment proposed this year, the basics cannot be lost sight of. The good revenue earning that the two Vande Bharat trains have shown must be replicated, totally uninfluenced by any extraneous factors.

There is a class of travelling public which would patronise these trains, in preference to air travel, if the punctuality and level of comfort are maintained to a high standard; the train would provide the platform but the services must match the expectations of travellers.

As for financing, private trains would help reduce the Capex requirement. The key lies in gradual make-over of premier services as well introduction of imaginative customer-friendly services. To that extent gradual induction of 400 trains over the next six years would be a boon as the travel environment in India would not support 400 premier trains in a short period of three years.

It is feasible to deploy 400 Vande Bharat trains or its clones. It may take five to six years instead of three but the government’s intent can certainly fructify.

The writer is a former General Manager, India Railways