Watch out for Pak Army’s growing clout

A virtual judicial soap opera is being played out in Pakistan over “Panama Leaks,” about properties owned by the family of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, notably in London. Sharif’s father, Mian Mohammed Sharif, was a wealthy steel magnate, whose properties were nationalised by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, and returned to him by President Zia ul Haq, who patronised the entry and rise of the Sharif family in national politics.

The bench of the Supreme Court entrusted with investigating the case, has behaved somewhat like a “kangaroo court”, appearing biased against the Prime Minister. This was evident in its including two Brigadier ranked intelligence officers in the investigative team, quite evidently to keep the army pleased in efforts to undermine an elected political leader. The two Brigadiers may have been good spooks in the ISI and Military Intelligence. They, however, had no constitutional authority or investigative experience, to participate in an investigation against an elected Prime Minister. It is evident that in Pakistan it is not just the elected Government, but also the judiciary, which runs scared of the powerful military.

While the future judgment of the Supreme Court cannot be predicted just now, Sharif seems to be preparing for all eventualities, given the scheduled national elections next year. During the interrogation by the investigative team, Sharif’s two sons Hasan and Hussain were humiliated and intimidated. Sharif himself testified for over three hours as a “witness” and not an “accused”. His defence was, the four flats his family owned in the elite Park Lane area were obtained after his father sold his business in Dubai and willed the entire amount to his eldest grandson Hasan, in 1980.

A Prince from the Qatar ruling family certified he was involved in managing the money from the sale of the Dubai businesses. Sharif seems to have remarkably warm personal relations with the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia, who saved him from the gallows after the Musharraf coup and also with the Qatar royals. This history alone will ensure he stays clear of Saudi-Qatari rivalries!

The case of a Prime Minister of Pakistan becoming wealthy is not unique to Nawaz Sharif. Benazir Bhutto owned three properties in the UK including a 350 acre, 30 room, 10 bedroom Mansion, in Rockwood Estate, in Surrey and a four-bedroom home in the elite Mayfair area. She also owned a 10,000 square feet villa in Dubai. The value of these three properties alone is estimated at $45 million. More importantly, Benazir owned a huge Castle in France whose value would likely exceed those of her UK properties.

Then, there is the case of the pompous President/General Pervez Musharraf. His retirement benefits were ₹20 million. Yet, within barely a month of his retirement, he purchased apartments in Mayfair, London and in Dubai, estimated to cost ₹400 million. Successive chief justices of the Supreme Court of Pakistan appeared to lack the courage to act against Musharraf, especially after a not too veiled warning by then Army Chief Raheel Sharif, who was a Musharraf protégé.

All this spells continuing uncertainty in Pakistan, with a vulnerable Nawaz Sharif, threatened by a bellicose, army backed Imran Khan, who himself is under a cloud. He is known to have purchased a flat in London through an offshore firm, ostensibly to “evade further taxes”.

After Benazir’s assassination, the Pakistan Peoples’ Party, founded by her father, has virtually fallen apart in Punjab, which elects around 60 per cent of the MPs. The PPP has a weak presence in Baluchistan and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province and is considerably weakened in its home, the Sind Province. The mercurial Imran Khan has a presence in Punjab and KP Provinces, but the odds are that in a free and fair election, Sharif stands a good chance of being re-elected. Even if the Army and Supreme Court allow this to happen, the Army’s role in national affairs and particularly in foreign policy and defence will be dominant. Pakistan’s military will continue to enjoy absolute power, with no constitutional responsibility.

It would be unrealistic to expect there will be any change in its support for terrorism in India and Afghanistan. It is clear that President Trump deplores Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. It will, however, be difficult to confidently predict his staying power in Afghanistan, given his oft-repeated commitment to “America First”.

We will have to work in close coordination with the Afghan government to influence US policies on Afghanistan. China will profess to be interested in a political settlement in Afghanistan, while seeking negotiations that ensure Pakistan’s dominant role in that country, thereby encouraging Pakistan to continue sponsoring terrorism. President Putin evidently favours four party negotiations on Afghanistan, which exclude India, even while promoting bilateral cooperation with India.

In crafting its approach to Pakistan, India should have no hesitation in taking advantage of its vulnerabilities. Pakistan faces tensions between its Wahhabi outfits and the widely observed Sufi/Bareilvi practices. It is also afflicted by the Shia-Sunni divide. Prime Minister Modi spoke last year about the exploitation of Baluchis by the Punjabi elite.

Just as Pakistan speaks of Kashmir as the “unfinished agenda of partition” India should respond on Baluchistan, bearing in mind that Jinnah himself acknowledged to Baluchistan’s ruler, the Khan of Kalat, only a few days before independence, that Baluchistan was independent and not part of British India. Moreover, we should join Afghanistan in declaring the Durand Line as a disputed border and continue moves to isolate Pakistan in South Asia. Most importantly, India should respond strongly and effectively, to ISI backed infiltration and terrorism across the LOC.

Prime Minister Modi evidently had a cordial exchange with Nawaz Sharif in Kazakhstan and has reportedly been in touch with him through intermediaries. Likewise, Sushma Swaraj has spoken to her counterpart whenever necessary and was very forthcoming when a Pakistani child needed life saving medical treatment in India. Such diplomatic and humanitarian courtesies should continue and hopefully, increase. We also have to reach out to sections in Pakistan that would like to see an end to terrorism across their borders, even while we remain inflexible on issues of cross border terrorism. Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni captured minds and hearts in Pakistan by their words, gestures and sensitivity, during the Champions’ Trophy.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan