Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have many implications in global affairs. India-US relations, which have been stressed for some time, should improve. Economic ties should deepen. Security cooperation may strengthen in the Indo-Pacific.

The winds of change may be felt in Dhaka. It is widely anticipated that the US may deviate from the Biden administration’s ‘Bangladesh project’. Done under the pretext of blocking the Chinese, it ended up creating security concerns on India’s eastern border and became a sore point in bilateral relations.

Trump appreciated the “state of chaos” in Bangladesh, after Sheikh Hasina’s ouster by a coup in the guise of a student protest. “It would have never happened on my watch,” he said in a pre-election tweet.

What happens next is to be seen but, but the Modi government should leverage Trump’s presidency to iron out the concerns created by the Biden administration. Having said that, New Delhi should appreciate that it needs a more prudent operation manual in Bangladesh. India invested only in Sheikh Hasina, not even adequately in her party. That was a narrow gamble, as was exposed by the US.

Regime change

The phrase ‘project’ was used by American public policy analyst, Jeffrey Sachs to describe Ukraine. In contrast to Kyiv, Dhaka is insignificant to US interests. Yet, a regime change operation took place at India’s doorstep.

To recap, high inflation since 2022 gave rise to popular frustration. Corruption and lack of political legitimacy of the government created grounds for change. In her 15-year rule, Hasina’s Awami League won four consecutive elections, the last in January 2024, which were marred by charges of rigging and incarceration of opposition leaders.

Meanwhile, a students agitation had begun in end-June against a high court order that reinstated quotas for independence war veterans. The Supreme Court of Bangladesh, on July 21, reversed the high court ruling, but by then the agitation had acquired a momentum of its own against the Sheikh Hasina government.

Hasina was airlifted by the Bangladesh army and dropped in India on August 5.

Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned outfit, was the first party to be invited for a political dialogue by the army chief after Hasina’s exit.

The power baton quickly shifted to staunch Islamists who were against Bangladesh’s Liberation from Pakistan and were accused of war crimes in 1971.

Jamaat was ready with the blueprint. Prof Muhammad Yunus-led interim administration started implementing them fast, with overt support from the Biden administration. The legacy of Liberation, which which seals a historic bond between India and Bangladesh, is being changed to suit the Jamaat’s interests.

Yunus and his Grameen Foundation are believed to have old links with the Obamas and the Clintons.

In September, he visited the Clintons in the US, met President Biden and introduced his special assistant, Mahfuz Alam, with alleged radical Islamist leanings.

Chaos in Dhaka

Amidst this confusion, Bangladesh plunged into a crisis. The lawlessness and targeted attacks on industrialists closer to Hasina’s Awami League tanked the economy.

Inflation is rising relentlessly. Orders for readymade garments, the only export revenue-churning industry of Bangladesh, started shifting to other destinations. People lost jobs in large numbers. Attacks on Hindus and Buddhists have been on the rise since Hasina’s exit.

Politically, Bangladesh is in chaos, with Yunus drafting a new Constitution.

The League and the third largest, Jatiya Party, were kept out of the dialogue. There are plans to ban them. Even League’s arch rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is unhappy, they want Yunus to conduct an election and exit.

Slowly, but surely the public mood is turning against the Yunus administration. Student leaders are harassed. Even the army is not spared. In a recent incident, garment workers attacked army vehicles in Dhaka.

But, Yunus is adamant about staying in power at the pretext of creating a New Bangladesh. In an interview with a foreign agency, the army chief gave the interim government 18 months.

In a counter-interview, Yunus claimed, only he would decide when the interim government would end its tenure. That was before Trump was elected with a landslide majority.

A national government?

The Yunus administration now has very few options. Overseas support will recede. There is a possibility that the US will revert to a less interfering role. Dhaka cannot risk ruining its relations with the US further by turning towards China, at this juncture.

Improving ties with Delhi is the only option but that would require Yunus to change track.

For India, there are no easy options. Hasina and a good majority of her confidantes, both in the government and the party, are unpopular. Many of them are utterly corrupt. The party needs time to regain the trust of the people.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh needs restore law and order and the economy. Constitutional changes and electoral reforms can only be brought in through consensus.

A national government with unstinted support from the army might help at this juncture.

The writer is an independent columnist