Only the media headlines coming out of the US seem to be excitable: a former President now a convicted felon awaiting sentencing on July 11. Can Donald Trump run for President from a prison? Can he vote for himself on November 5? What are the implications for the Grand Old Party on the latest turn of events in Manhattan?

The first impression coming out of New York is that nothing has changed as far as Trump is concerned. He continued to rail against the trial and the verdict accusing the Biden administration of staging a political show with some Republicans in Congress in tow. The only verdict that matters, Trump argued, will be on November 5. The Trump campaign has turned the conviction on all 34 charges into a campaign donation fest raking in mega bucks, including from some first time millionaire donors.

About Trump’s eligibility to continue with his Presidential quest, legal luminaries have a simple answer: the Constitution says nothing on this except that a person has to be 35 years old, citizen and resided for 14 years in the country. Going by this, Trump can run for President even from prison, if he is sent to one. And nothing prevents him from carrying on his political journey even with a suspended sentence hanging over his shoulders.

The Manhattan trial was only one of the four on the Trump list, the others pending are in Washington DC over the January 6, 2021 riots on Capitol Hill; the classified documents case in Florida and accusations of election tampering in the state of Georgia.

It is unlikely that these three trials will be concluded before the elections and in the process setting the stage for a different kind of political show should Trump get re-elected in November.

Many believed that the Manhattan trial that involved Trump and his payment of $130,000 to an adult actress that came up during the 2016 election campaign was perhaps the weakest of the cases.

Political spectacle

To Trump none of the legal problems mattered: he has made a political spectacle of the court hearings, being present even when he was not obligated and indulging in rants outside the courthouse and through his social media handle.

Irrespective of how the Judge presiding over the Manhattan trial handles the sentencing, the conviction per se could have an impact on the political fortunes of the 45th President. As it is Trump is in a statistical dead heat with the incumbent Joe Biden but is seen as having a small advantage in the swing states. The question is will the Manhattan conviction change the nature of support, the argument being that even a small drop will matter, especially in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Media reports have it that exit polls done during Republican primaries apparently had double digit numbers of voters maintaining that they will not vote for Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony. And this April, a survey by Ipsos/ABC News showed that 16 per cent of those supporting the former President saying they would reconsider their support in such a scenario. Here again there is a word of caution: as supporters have only said they would “reconsider”, not a flat out rejection of Trump.

The biggest political danger to Trump comes from Independents who have said in a Reuters/Ipsos poll this April that 60 per cent of them would not vote for him should he be convicted of a crime.

And the Trump campaign would also have to factor in the moderate Republicans and their perceptions of the Manhattan verdict. It is all dicey for Trump looking at November 5, but a lot of hard work for the Biden camp trying to cash in.

The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and UN

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