MONSOON AND AGRICULTURE. Can boost cereals and oilseeds

The India Meteorological Department has predicted above-normal rainfall this year in the south-west monsoon season. With rains in the June-September period crucial for kharif crops, such as rice, oilseeds and coarse grains (cereals other than rice and wheat), a good monsoon will come as a relief to farmers.

India’s kharif crop is almost completely dependent on rains as there is scarcity of water in most States. Data from the Central Water Commission shows that currently, the total water stored in the 91 key reservoirs (which accounts for over 60 per cent of the total storage capacity of reservoirs in the country) is 34.082 BCM, which is 22 per cent of their live storage capacity and just about 76 per cent of the average storage of last 10 years.

Over half of India’s gross cropped area (or cultivable land) is dependent on rains and over 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall is received during the south-west monsoon period starting June and ending in September. Even areas that are irrigated through tanks, canals or wells suffer during periods of low rainfall, as water levels in reservoirs drop and ground water level sinks. Only 35-40 per cent of the cultivable land in the country is under assured irrigation, according to data from the ICRIER, a research organisation.

The possibility of above normal south-west monsoon for the current year is good news for cereals and oilseeds, including groundnut, castor seed, and soyabean. For rabi crops such as gram, urad, moong or, say, wheat, the weather conditions post-September will be important.

Of India’s total foodgrain output, half comes in kharif and half in the rabi season. While pulses are grown in rabi, rice, coarse cereals, oil seeds and cotton are grown mostly in kharif.

However, while overall there may be above-normal rainfall, its dispersion in the important foodgrain producing States, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, UP, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra, will be key to growth in the output of foodgrains this year.

The Ministry of Agriculture’s estimate for 2015-16 shows the total foodgrain production (kharif and rabi together) at around 253.16 million tonnes. This is only marginally higher over the previous year’s production of 252.02 million tonnes. Though poor monsoon rains in the June-September period hit kharif output, the year’s total foodgrain output hasn’t been impacted severely as the yield in the rabi season was good. Data from the Department of Agriculture shows that in 2015-16, while kharif output was 124.24 million tonnes, lower by 3.8 million tonnes over the previous year, rabi output at 128.92 tonnes was higher by 4.96 million tonnes over last year. Though some regions in the central parts, such as Vidarbha in Maharashtra, were hit by drought in the rabi season, the output inched up, thanks to the Centre’s supply of drought-resistant crops in some regions.

However, some crops, such as coarse cereals (10 per cent), oil seeds and sugarcane recorded sharp declines in 2015-16. The below average south-west monsoon rains in 2014-15 may be blamed for the drop in output in the above crops.

The outlook for 2016-17 is bright given the above normal rainfall forecast by both the IMD and Skymet.

So, the output in all kharif crops may be higher this year. Central India and regions in the west coast which were hit by severe drought last year are predicted to get good rains. So, the parched fields in the north and central pockets of Maharashtra, the belt for cereals, soyabean and cotton, are likely to get bountiful rains. However, south Peninsula, which saw deficient rains last year, may not receive much rain this year too. Tamil Nadu and south-interior Karnataka may receive less rains, says Skymet. This is the region for rice, coarse cereals, such as jowar and bajra, sugarcane and cotton. North-east India may also get only moderate rains, says the agency.

As the time of onset of the monsoon and its dispersion across States is what will influence sowing patterns, one needs to wait to see how the monsoon pans out.

This year’s rabi crop may also be good. After the good rains in the June-September period, the residual moisture in the soil will help rabi sowing. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says that there is a 50 per cent chance for La Nina conditions to set in by September, which may also help rabi crops.