Gold was down 0.3 per cent whereas silver was up 0.3 per cent last week as they closed at $2,327 and $30.4 per ounce respectively on Friday.
But in the domestic market futures of both metals gained. On the MCX, gold and silver futures was up 0.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent as they closed at ₹71,834 (per 10 gram) and ₹91,570 (per kg), respectively.
MCX-Gold (₹71,834)
Gold futures (August contract) stayed flat through last week as it was fluctuating in a narrow range. While the broader uptrend is still valid, there is a possibility for a correction from here before the next leg of rally.
As the nearest support is at ₹70,000, we expect gold futures to touch this level and then appreciate to ₹74,500. A breakout of this can take the contract to ₹78,000.
That said, if the price falls below ₹70,000, the near-term outlook can turn weak where gold futures could decline to ₹67,000.
Trade strategy: Stay out now and buy gold futures if the price dips to ₹70,100. Place stop-loss at ₹69,200. When the price moves up to ₹72,500, trail the stop-loss to ₹70,200. Book profits at ₹74,500.
MCX-Silver (₹91,570)
Silver futures (July series) witnessed considerable intraweek volatility before it settled with a 0.3 per cent weekly gain.
The recent candlesticks on the weekly chart hint at selling pressure above ₹93,000. So, there is a reasonable chance for a correction in price. Such a move can drag the contract to ₹86,000.
A potential recovery post this down move can take silver futures to ₹93,000 and then to ₹95,000. But if the contract falls below ₹86,000, the decline can go up to ₹83,000 and ₹80,000.
We forecast the contract to bounce off ₹86,000 and rally back to ₹93,000 or even to ₹95,000.
Trade strategy: Go long in silver futures with stop-loss at ₹82,750 when the price falls to ₹86,000. When the contract recovers to ₹90,000, modify the stop-loss to ₹87,000. Exit at ₹93,000.