Opinion polls, while they indicate the way the wind is blowing, are not written in stone. Elections and uncertainties are joined at the hip, and the coming contest is no exception.
Will the BJP-led NDA get the magic number of 272 seats (a majority) in Parliament? Or will it have to depend on unpredictable allies who pull in different directions? Can the underdog incumbent Congress-led UPA spring a surprise and come to power again? What if a Third Front cobbled together by many parties takes charge? What kind of debut and impact will the AAP have?
To these imponderables add the bewildering complexity of India, and it is obvious crystal-ball gazing is going to be tricky — even if it is done by experts on the basis of scientifically structured and fairly conducted opinion polls. The track record of opinion polls in India is patchy. Most such polls predicted that the NDA would return to power in 2004, and that the UPA would have only a slight edge over the NDA in 2009. Both times, they missed the mark. Will the psephologists hit the bull’s eye in 2014? It’s anybody’s guess.
Ergo, don’t place all your money based on what the opinion polls project. Position yourself such that you are able to run with the hare and hunt with the hound. Plan for different scenarios and spread your bets.
Also read: >How to play the polls