After a strong uptrend in October, precious metals lost sheen in November. The strengthening of the US dollar played a key role in keeping the precious metals prices under check last month. However, the recent escalation in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has helped precious metals regain some mojo in the past few days.
Comex gold fell 2.91% in November to settle at $2,673.9 an ounce. Comex silver, too, closed on a weak note, falling 5.18% to settle at $31.1 an ounce by the end of November.
Reflecting the weakness in the global markets, MCX gold closed 2.35% lower to settle at ₹77,121 per 10-gm at the end of November. MCX silver lost 6.14% in last month to close at ₹91,150 per kg.
As anticipated last month, the Comex gold price saw a pullback and dropped way below the downside target zone of $2,650-2,700. After dropping to a low of $2,541 on November 14, the price has recovered smartly in the last couple of weeks.
While the medium-term outlook remains positive for Comex gold, there is a possibility of the price being confined to a range of $2,530-2,730 in the near term. The price is likely to remain in this price zone before resuming its long-term uptrend.
As observed in the prior months, the next major target for Comex gold is $2,850-$2,900. The journey towards this target would commence on the completion of the anticipated short-term consolidation. Comex silver, too, ruled weak last month and the price dropped to a low of $29.75 on November 14. The silver price has subsequently recovered to the current level of $31.1. This may trade in the range of $29-$31.8 in the short-term. While the long-term trend is still positive for silver, a breakout from the $29-$31.8 zone would set the tone for the next significant short-term move.
November pullback
In sync with last month’s expectations, MCX gold price saw a pull-back in November and the also dropped to the then-mentioned target zone of ₹75,500-76,000. The MCX gold price could remain range bound in the ₹73,800-78,900 zone. A move out of this range would influence the direction of the short-term price.
MCX, silver, also moved as per expectations and dropped to the target zone of ₹90,200-₹90,800 mentioned last month. Similar to gold, silver price too is likely to stay range bound in the ₹88,600-93,800 zone in the near term. The medium-term outlook is positive, and the price could head higher on the completion of the expected short-term cool off.
To summarise, precious metals are likely to be confined in a range in the next few weeks. A move out of this range would set the tone for the next directional move.
(The author is a Chennai-based analyst and trader. The views and opinion in this column are based on analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)