The September futures of aluminium on the MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) has been oscillating between ₹205 and ₹215 recently. On Thursday, the contract slipped below the support at ₹205 giving it a bearish bias. But there is support at ₹200 and until this holds, the bulls will have a chance to stage a comeback.
However, there are some bearish indications. Indicators like the RSI and the MACD on the daily chart remain in the negative territory and the contract is trading below both 21- and 50-day moving averages. So, the likelihood of the contract slipping below ₹200 is high.
In such a case, the aluminium futures can drop quickly to the immediate support at ₹193. Subsequent support is at ₹186. On the other hand, if the contract bounces off the support at ₹200 and moves above ₹205, it can rally to ₹215. But a move past this level is less likely.
Strategy: Considering the above factors, traders can wait until the support at ₹200 is breached. Initiate fresh short with stop-loss at ₹205 when the contract invalidates ₹200. When the price falls below ₹193, revise the stop-loss down to ₹198. Liquidate all the shorts at ₹186.