Since last September, the continuous futures of natural gas on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have been on a decline. The latest leg of downtrend began in December from about ₹515. Bears went on a rampage as the contract dropped below key supports at ₹280 and ₹250 over the past couple of weeks.
As things stand, there are no signs of a recovery. Even if there is a rally, it is likely to be a corrective one which is likely to be capped at ₹280. The outlook will turn bullish only if the contract decisively breach the hurdle at ₹280.
On the other hand, if the decline extends, the probability of which is high, can depreciate towards the nearest support at ₹180. The contract might bounce off this support.
Trade strategy
As the overall trend is bearish with a chances of corrective rally, we recommend initiating trades in two legs. That is, go short at the current level of ₹227. Add more shorts when the contract rallies to ₹270. Place stop-loss at ₹290.
When the contract declines below ₹200, bring the stop-loss down to ₹250. Book profits at ₹180.
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.