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As the next round of climate negotiations begins today (November 11), the world has a sobering datapoint staring at it: global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew 1.3 per cent in 2023 over the previous year to reach a record level of 57.1 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e).
The figure 57.1 acquires perspective when you learn that to limit global warming to a (just bearable) 2 degrees C by 2100, over the average temperature of the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), the available space for GHG gases is 900 GtCO2, or 200 GtCO2, if the warming should be limited to (a safe) 1.5 degrees C.
According to the Emissions Gap Report 2024 of the United Nations Environment Programme, annual emission reductions of about 5.5 per cent and 9 per cent are needed until 2030 to bridge the emissions gap for the below 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C pathways, respectively. Considering that emissions have only been going up, only the incorrigible optimist would expect such emission cuts.
Worse, as Joydeep Gupta notes, promises are not kept. On the one hand, developed countries continue to shrug off their responsibilities; the biggest of them is likely to shrug more with Donald Trump at its helm. The leading theme of the upcoming Conference of Parties 29 (CoP 29) is ‘finance’, which will be discussed under the head ‘New Collective Quantified Goal’, or NCQG, which is meant to replace the existing (moribund) goal of $100 billion of annual fund mobilisation — how it may unfold under the Trump cloud is being observed with some trepidation.
On the other hand, all countries are falling short of their promise to do their mite for climate action. As the World Resources Institute notes, the actions of countries outlined in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) will take the world to a “catastrophic” 2.5-2.9 degrees C of warming by 2100.
All this means is that the world has a decreasing probability of escaping from the gas chamber that it has put itself into. This is the central message of EGR 2024, though couched in polite and politically correct language.
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